Bridger Aerospace has real upside potential if revenue and EBITDA margins grow alongside year-round work. High leverage, rising rates and waning institutional interest make it very risky. Bridger estimates up to $183M from three Metatek survey aircraft over five-year terms and assumed extensions; the first is expected in service in 2027. An AI-assisted 2027 forecast also factors in Spanish scoopers, Texas A&M and DOI work: $162M-$190M revenue and $57M-$76M EBITDA, which seems a bit conservative. … Show more

Bridger Aerospace has a good chart setup ahead of fire season. The stock has held its rising trend, formed an inverse head-and-shoulders and is now flagging. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace is a bad investment because firefighting demand is quite predictable and it probably has no Department of Defense contract. Per @SingularityRes, Blackstone sold a large block of its holdings just before last week's earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bridger Aerospace benefits as more wildfires combined with incompetent government create greater need for responsive, efficient and skilled firefighting. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace and AirJoule Technologies are the best ways to play an El Niño summer that is almost certain to bring crop failures and wildfires on an unprecedented scale, with a US blockade worsening the pesticide market. For AirJoule, investors may perceive its technology as able to help with El Niño conditions, whether or not it actually does, alongside potential data center contracts. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bridger Aerospace's huge debt load means it is likely to go bankrupt sooner or later. x.com 

Ouster is the US-made lidar alternative for buyers who cannot use the Chinese leaders, Hesai and RoboSense. Hesai is on the Pentagon's Chinese military company list, so defense and drone programs must route around it, and Seneca's wildfire drones just picked Ouster's Rev8. Trailing revenue is $205M, with the latest quarter up 56%, and 14.4x sales is cheap for that growth, though it burned $82M of free cash flow last year. The open question is whether the lockout spreads into commercial robotics. … Show more

Bridger Aerospace's common stock will get wiped out, with Blackstone and Bain Capital set to take over the company. x.com