Bridger Aerospace's common stock will get wiped out, with Blackstone and Bain Capital set to take over the company. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace is a bad investment because firefighting demand is quite predictable and it probably has no Department of Defense contract. Per @SingularityRes, Blackstone sold a large block of its holdings just before last week's earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has real upside potential if revenue and EBITDA margins grow alongside year-round work. High leverage, rising rates and waning institutional interest make it very risky. Bridger estimates up to $183M from three Metatek survey aircraft over five-year terms and assumed extensions; the first is expected in service in 2027. An AI-assisted 2027 forecast also factors in Spanish scoopers, Texas A&M and DOI work: $162M-$190M revenue and $57M-$76M EBITDA, which seems a bit conservative. … Show more

Lucid faces bankruptcy risk because Saudi Arabia's PIF, wrecked by poor investments, will cut future funding as it did with LIV Golf. The rumor that sent shares down 45% came from a blogger, but there is zero chance the Saudis keep backing the company. The car is fine but badly overpriced for its limited abilities: a $115,000 GT is like paying double for a Toyota Camry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Meta and CoreWeave keep piling up debt for the AI buildout, and when the bill comes due shareholders will be left holding the bag. Per a post the author quotes, Meta committed $21 billion to CoreWeave through 2032, and minutes later CoreWeave announced $4.25 billion of new debt on top of about $30 billion already on its books. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has a lot of upside because wildfires are real threats, though the business tends to be seasonal. x.com 

T1 Energy is a high-capex, low-margin business now borrowing its way to zero, shown by its $120 million private offering of 4.75% convertible senior notes due 2031. Earlier red flags were massively overleveraged debt, a shady founder, a lawsuit from one of Europe's largest utilities, FEOC credit eligibility it claims but has not officially secured, and a questionable plan to repay Chinese debt to qualify for US subsidies. x.com  x.com 

Bridger Aerospace has a good chart setup ahead of fire season. The stock has held its rising trend, formed an inverse head-and-shoulders and is now flagging. x.com 

Bridger Aerospace benefits as more wildfires combined with incompetent government create greater need for responsive, efficient and skilled firefighting. x.com