Ren
Head of AI, Ex-Product Manager, AI Supply-Chain Bottlenecks
Shunsin's valuation could rebuild as CPO work lifts gross margins from the traditional OSAT range of 15-16% to 30-35% on CPO and 1.6T products. As Foxconn's packaging affiliate, it handles the high-precision FAU optical alignment step in Nvidia's CPO supply chain. Its ShunYun unit signed a mass-production OSAT deal with Enablence in March 2026, Vietnam capacity avoids tariffs, and Apple Watch SiP adds diversification. It is early and small, the kind of name that re-rates violently. x.com
Foxconn's CPO buildout is moving faster than expected, which benefits Shunsin as its silicon photonics and CPO packaging arm. Per Taiwan's Economic Daily, Foxconn has shipped all-optical CPO switch cabinets from its Vietnam factory to NVIDIA ahead of schedule, with 2026 volume revised from 10,000 to over 50,000 units. Shunsin has expanded its Bac Giang, Vietnam facility for CPO, targeting 4.5 million units a year by December 2026. @aleabitoreddit calls Shunsin a free hard-carry by Foxconn. x.com
Shunsin's 15%–20% drop looks like a sector selloff rather than anything company-specific, despite its recently confirmed direct partnership with TSMC on COUPE. There appear to be no material negative developments beyond SemiAnalysis repeatedly posting bearish takes on the Nvidia ecosystem. x.com
Shunsin Technology can keep rising sharply even after tripling since March, because the market underestimates next year's co-packaged optics shipments, provided Nvidia's Rubin Ultra reaches mass production on time. x.com
Bizlink is a beneficiary of Nvidia's faster-than-expected co-packaged optics ramp, because CPO carries higher content for it than near-packaged optics. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production as key component yields improve, with scale-out switch shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 and 100k in 2027. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m in 2027 and 42m in 2028, as NVL576 is intact but Trainium 4 is slower. Full NPO adoption is retained for the cycle. x.com x.com
Lumentum's valuation is supported by Nvidia's co-packaged optics scale-out progressing faster than expected. Spectrum-X CPO switches are in mass production on better component yields, with shipments forecast at 15k in 4Q26 rising to 100k in 2027. CPO and NPO are seen contributing 12% and 26% of Lumentum's revenue in 2027 and 2028. Scale-up optical engine estimates were revised to 6.5m and 42m for 2027 and 2028, with full NPO adoption for the cycle retained. x.com
Lumentum stands to gain as the shift from copper to light inside AI data centers accelerates. Co-packaged optics is now in mass production, per TrendForce, with Nvidia shipping Spectrum-X CPO switches. Near-packaged optics is catching on fast; Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston says its demand looks bigger than CPO's and came sooner, now late 2027 or early 2028. He sees about $40 a share of fiscal 2028 earnings power, above Street estimates, with none of CPO or NPO in the numbers yet. x.com
FOCI is positioned for a coming fiber-array-unit bottleneck in co-packaged optics, where supply cannot meet demand. Per UDN, Largan Precision, FOCI and China's TFC have entered Nvidia's FAU supply chain; about 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year would need roughly 600k-700k FAUs, demand should reach several million units in 2027, and existing capacity cannot meet it. It is a tad early, with mass production expected in H2 2027. x.com
Lumentum and Coherent sit at the center of a multiplicative optical bottleneck, where parts, capacity, yield and customer sign-off each limit output. Next-gen AI clusters need optical interconnect, and McKinsey sees 800G transceiver output 40-60% short of demand through 2027 as the market doubles to $26B in 2026. Nvidia invested $2B each in both to lock in laser supply, and the FCC is drafting curbs on Chinese transceiver imports; Chinese suppliers hold ~60% of optical-component revenue. x.com … Show more
Photonics and co-packaged optics stocks including Sivers, Lightwave Logic, Almae, Applied Optoelectronics, Aehr, LPKF, Lumentum, Coherent and Soitec benefit as the CPO buildout moves faster than expected. Per @ren_stocks, citing Taiwan's Economic Daily, Foxconn has shipped all-optical CPO switch cabinets to Nvidia early and raised 2026 volume from 10,000 to more than 50,000 units. Its packaging arm Shunsin is expanding a Vietnam plant to 4.5 million units of annual capacity by December 2026. … Show more
Himax's microlens monopoly is real but narrower than the market thinks. As the Hunterbrook and Citrini report claimed, and Tianfeng Securities confirms, it is the sole microlens supplier for TSMC's COUPE Gen 1-2. That is not a monopoly on Nvidia's co-packaged optics: Himax is not among Nvidia's 11 official CPO partners, TFC, Corning and Orbray build CPO-grade fiber array units without it, and 80% of revenue is still display drivers. That leaves it a small, low-conviction long. x.com x.com
Fabrinet is the strategic bottleneck for 1.6T optical interconnects, as its proprietary 5-axis active alignment solves the sub-0.5-micron laser coupling these transceivers need. HPC revenue jumped to $86M in Q2 FY26 from $15M on 200G EML lasers for Nvidia networking. Its Thailand Building 10 expansion starts going live in July 2026, AWS and Google broaden the customer base, and it holds $961M cash with no net debt. At about 3.6x forward sales, it is not priced for hype. x.com
