Trade Whisperer
Memory Engineer & Data Scientist, Founder of Blue Pink Candles
Intel's EMIB packaging is ramping as advanced packaging becomes the next chokepoint after HBM. EMIB substrate yields reportedly rose from ~30% in 2Q26 to ~45%, with targets of 50% by 4Q26 and 60% by 1Q27. Google is expected to adopt EMIB-T in 2027 and AWS is testing it. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says Intel has to prepay substrate suppliers to secure capacity. CoWoS capacity is set to grow about 20x from 2023 to 370k wpm by 2028, more than TSMC can carry alone. x.com
Intel's advanced packaging push gains a heavyweight leader in former SK hynix CEO Seok Hee Lee, hired as EVP of Intel Foundry. CEO Lip-Bu Tan called advanced packaging and system integration defining capabilities for next-generation systems, and Lee's expertise should help scale EMIB-T and HBI to high-volume production. Intel is part of the 'Z-Axis Trade' alongside TSMC, ASE and Amkor. x.com
Intel's EMIB-T packaging could reaccelerate now that the root causes of substrate yields around 45-50% have been identified. Momentum for EMIB-T is rising for Google's TPU v10, supporting the mid- to long-term positive view despite the v9 timing slip. x.com
Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intel's advanced packaging story is already priced in; the stock got there a little too fast. EMIB and EMIB-T are legit, and the foundry pivot gives Intel a real narrative, but the market has moved ahead of it. x.com
Reported talks between SK hynix and Intel to make memory chips in the US are another strong data point for Intel Foundry, though nothing is signed. After multiple leaks of SK hynix looking at EMIB, big players are clearly treating Intel as a real alternative for advanced packaging. A deal would move EMIB from a backup option to core AI infrastructure, offloading packaging bottlenecks to US soil while undercutting TSMC on cost. Volume is not expected before 2027 or 2028. x.com
US sovereign AI and defense demand for domestically made compute will bring Intel most, if not all, US semiconductor designers as customers. PC weakness also lets Intel shift wafers to higher-margin server CPUs, but that takes a few quarters; capacity to ship more server CPUs is the limiter. The $240 billion 2030 server CPU market forecast is a stretch case, not the base case, versus roughly $200 billion consensus. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intel looks a tad overvalued near $100, so it is not a buy right now, even though its fundamentals are strong. It is state-backed, demand is so high that lower-grade chips are sold rather than discarded, and its downstream stack, including EMIB packaging, is the strongest in about a decade, possibly outpacing its foundry business per Morgan Stanley reporting. x.com
Broadcom's integrated optics, electronics and packaging could lower custom-chip system costs because separate suppliers defend their margins. At similar valuations, it is preferred to Nvidia and has more room to beat expectations. Google TPU v8 shipments are estimated at 4.0M in 2026 and 9.1M in 2027, assuming Broadcom supplies the remainder after MediaTek's allocation. Anthropic financing adds value only if chip profit exceeds likely support payments and capacity costs. x.com x.com
AI's physical buildout looks set to last to 2030 and beyond because financing, memory supply and hyperscaler spending still point to sustained demand. Nebius has $3.5B in financing, IREN $2.4B at 9% and SPCX $40B for GPU equipment. SK hynix expects shortages through at least 2030 and Samsung says HBM4 is sold out; memory companies are making money with no sign of slowing. Google expects 2027 capex to rise significantly. Pullbacks can happen; be cautious and buy quality. x.com
Intel faces massive capital raises because its CFO warned it must invest substantially more in substrates while the company is losing money. OpenAI's chip effort adds to the sense that the market is calling Intel irrelevant in the sector, with major outflows. x.com x.com x.com
Advanced packaging is where the new Moore's law lies, and Intel's EMIB is becoming a major business. Per Digitimes, cited by @pequityresearch, the first TPU using EMIB has met yield standards, making it significantly more likely that future TPU generations keep using it. A quoted assessment calls EMIB a multi-billion-dollar-per-customer business with 30% operating margins and phenomenal ROIC, now headed by SK hynix's former CEO. x.com x.com
