jbulltard
Options Trader, Market Trend Modeling with Custom Data
Ferrari faces a long-term demand problem as younger wealthy buyers turn to Lamborghini, McLaren and multimillion-dollar niche brands like Pagani and Koenigsegg. Ferrari is the world's most dominant brand and forcing buyers to purchase all models for allocations keeps it doing well, but it sticks to an older audience while rivals court the young and rich. Once its over-60 buyers age out, the business should shift toward the others. x.com
Ferrari is done as a brand after unveiling the Ferrari Luce, a move on par with Tesla launching a diesel truck, and its image is toast. Former chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo said the car risks destroying a myth and hoped Ferrari would at least remove the Prancing Horse from it. Buyers are scaling back on EVs, and 90% of the experience of such a car is its sound. x.com x.com x.com
Ferrari is less attractive to own now because its Luce numbers look increasingly underwhelming and prices are already being cut. The company and brand remain appealing, but the money could work better elsewhere. x.com
Ferrari isn't worth owning even after getting cheap, because of long-standing brand problems. Like Corvettes, it isn't embraced by younger generations versus other exotic brands; it refuses to move to non-animal-skin interiors beyond the Purosangue SUV's Alcantara; and, as with Porsche, its SUV is cheapening the brand, with Ferrari merchandise even turning up in an outlet-mall shoe store. The Luce may be just long-term noise. x.com
Ferrari's buyers are rich people, and rich people never go through a recession. The stock just hit its highest level since November 2025. x.com
Ferrari remains expensive because bulls ignored its capitalized R&D, overstating free cash flow. At the peak the stock traded near a 1% FCF yield, and dividends plus buybacks only ever covered about half the quoted FCF, leaving some €400M unexplained. Even at about 25x FCF it would be only cheap-ish when TransDigm or Moody's, growing 6-8% for years, trade at 25-30x, and Ferrari is still materially above that despite a 43% drawdown, its largest ever, per @Fiscal_ai. x.com x.com x.com
Car companies make great products but terrible businesses because competition kills margins. A great car keeps a customer away for two decades and a mediocre one sends him to a rival, so there is no recurring revenue. The industry is capital intensive, cyclical, union-heavy and lacks pricing power, with a hundred competitors cutting prices, adding capacity and buying share. That applies to BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, BYD, Toyota and Volkswagen alike. x.com
Hermès and Ferrari are the only luxury companies worth holding, as unique, concentrated brands in a sector that has mostly ridden momentum. Ferrari stands out most for its premium product, with only about 14,000 cars a year, its pricing, repeat customers and order book. x.com x.com
Ferrari's incompetence in Formula 1 is one reason not to own its stock. x.com
Ferrari deserves to fall more than 10 points premarket after unveiling what is probably the ugliest car it has made, at an insane price. Repliers in the thread add that a Tesla Plaid costs a fraction of the price and that someone should be fired for allowing the design. x.com x.com x.com
Ferrari got cheaper while its moat got deeper, which could make it an excellent pick for a 10-year-plus horizon. Its multiple fell from 60x in 2020 to 30x even as EBITDA margin rose from 29% to 40%, ROE reached 42% and its quality score hit 98/100, the best in global autos. The derating reflects expected revenue growth of about 6% a year through 2028, half the historical pace, because management deliberately capped volume to protect scarcity, leaving only price increases to drive growth. x.com
Ferrari is overvalued for such low growth. x.com
