Marcos Milla
Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author
KMEM could have the long-term edge over DRAM as a memory fund because its heavier weighting in SK Hynix and Micron gives purer memory exposure than Samsung. Both charge the same expense ratio, and Fidelity users avoid a service fee with KMEM. The 41% SK Hynix weight may add volatility, and KMEM may pay a distribution. Existing DRAM holders can simply keep it and buy SK Hynix directly at its Friday IPO, while new investors with no memory exposure may prefer the more active KMEM. x.comÂ
Micron is the better memory buy here because Korean stocks have traded poorly and SK hynix's US ADR carries a massive premium over its Korean listing. SK hynix remains the preferred company; HBM is favored over NAND, making Micron and SK hynix preferable to SanDisk. Memory stocks look cheap, with very attractive risk/reward at these levels, and are unlikely to stay cheap for long. x.comÂ
More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.comÂ
Buying the memory sector through the Roundhill Memory ETF or KMEM avoids single-company risk, and both look good here. KMEM is more heavily weighted to the Korean memory names. x.comÂ
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.comÂ
For buying the memory dip, the DISK ETF looks better than the more popular DRAM ETF because its holdings are less concentrated. DRAM puts 75% in Samsung, Micron and SK hynix, while DISK holds about 50% in SK hynix, SanDisk and Kioxia, with extra Kioxia exposure that is a favored bet. DISK underweights Micron and Samsung, though, and 10-15% in each of the five big names would balance it better. Expense ratios are similar at 0.75% versus 0.65%. x.comÂ
SK hynix's five-year agreements with 14 major customers cover more than half its 2027-28 capacity, giving its memory earnings unusually long visibility. DRAM prices rose 28% and NAND 25% in the quarter, while operating profit reached 62.8 billion against 58.5 billion expected; Q4 DRAM shipments are guided up 25% from Q3. Those commitments support the view that demand is not peaking yet. Overweight, $400 target. x.comÂ
SK hynix's strong pricing and secured capacity could push memory stocks higher. Per Wall St Engine, its Q3 DRAM ASP rose by a high-20s percentage quarter over quarter, while long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027-28 capacity. Those figures support the memory upcycle. x.comÂ
The Roundhill Memory ETF is the more fitting way to take a pure bet on the memory cycle. About three-quarters of it sits in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron, making it a direct vehicle for memory chips and an attractive alternative for overseas retail investors barred from buying Samsung and SK Hynix directly. A Korea ETF also holds both but carries sizable stakes in other companies such as Hyundai Motor. x.comÂ
Either memory ETF is a reasonable way to own memory, with a preference for Tema's DISK and its slightly higher NAND weighting through Kioxia and Sandisk. DISK, built with SemiAnalysis, is far more diversified, while DRAM holds over 75% in Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung. DISK is too light on Micron, and DRAM too light on Sandisk. Offhand, NAND prices grew faster than DRAM for the first time in Q2. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix and Samsung preferred remain bullish memory bets because the Korean names have a faster payback than Micron. The comparison is 3-4 years versus roughly eight for Micron, though Micron seems to be working fine. AI-trade tail risk could still cause steep losses in these names, as can happen even with low-P/E stocks. x.comÂ
