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Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Uber remains a stock to avoid because robotaxis threaten its take rate. That view could change if Uber adapts, pivots and proves it wrong. x.comÂ
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.comÂ
Uber and DoorDash run commodity businesses that depend on governments able to spoil them, leaving much risk and little upside. Per @OnlyInBOS, Massachusetts now guarantees Uber and Lyft drivers at least $34.48 an hour plus benefits under a $175M settlement, and per @Investor_NICK_, Minneapolis's city council is proposing an emergency meeting to ban DoorDash drone delivery to protect drivers' income. x.com x.comÂ
Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com x.comÂ
Uber is cheap because it is priced as a self-driving loser, yet self-driving tech should become commoditized, making off-peak demand management the key differentiator; if private cars become autonomous and shared, Uber would likely manage that. Its own autonomous plans look viable, a Delivery Hero takeover would be very good, and Appaloosa, which did well buying Lyft, is very long. Longer term, managing fleets of shared robots for cleaning, cooking or home care could be big. x.comÂ
Uber faces a race to the bottom as ride-hailing becomes commoditized and prices keep falling, leaving all players losing. The winners in such markets sell something else, the way Google and Amazon make money from ads. x.comÂ
Uber looks exposed to Tesla's Cybercab, which appears to cost about a third as much as alternatives, yet its stock is surprisingly not getting wrecked. x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
Uber will suffer from autonomous vehicles, and at 21x EV/EBITDA the stock leaves no room for that risk. It becomes interesting only below 7x. x.comÂ