ASMPT should outperform BE Semiconductor over the next two years because hybrid bonding for HBM has slipped toward 2028, keeping older bonding in use longer. At Hot Chips 2026, SK hynix signaled it will extend MR-MUF through 16-high HBM4; per Yole, wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding arrives around 2028. ASMPT specializes in the conventional bonding that is sticking around; BESI loses its main near-term driver. BESI is no slam-dunk short, since Intel's Diamond Rapids uses hybrid bonding in chiplets. … Show more

Applied Materials' larger stake in BE Semiconductor points to long-term hybrid-bonding potential despite delayed adoption in HBM. Applied agreed to raise its BESI holding from 9% to about 20%; HBM adoption timelines may not reflect the prospects for the technology as a whole. x.com  x.com 

ASMPT is not a buy because almost everything is already priced in, and its prized AMICRA unit is too small to change that. AMICRA builds arguably the world's most precise die bonders for photonic packaging, critical to the co-packaged optics ramp, with an estimated 40-50% share per industry consensus. But photonics is still under 10% of ASMPT's HKD 14.5 billion revenue, and the market has long since absorbed the TCB, HBM and CPO optimism. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Per FTR Investors, Applied Materials' larger stake strengthens BE Semiconductor's partnership in hybrid bonding and advanced AI chip packaging, supporting a bullish view. Applied Materials is increasing its stake from 9% to about 20%. x.com 

ASMPT is likely to become CXMT's alternative thermocompression bonding supplier after Korea's Hanmi suspended shipments to China. Its main TCB customer today is SK hynix, while Micron has excluded it on geopolitical grounds in favor of BESI, and reports say ASMPT has been in contact with Chinese HBM customers, most likely CXMT. x.com 

Unimicron should benefit from a persistent AI ABF substrate shortage and a shift toward higher-end products. Its projected share exceeds 30% as the market reaches $13bn/$18bn in 2027/28; added capacity is expected to lift ABF revenue 66%/90%. Higher-end ABF, mSAP and LPDDR lift margins, supporting 77% EPS CAGR. Initiate Buy with a NT$1,820 target at 30x 2027 earnings. x.com 

Customer prepayments of about $3.2B for Amkor's capacity exceed its roughly $2.5B planned capex this year, funding the buildout ahead of delivery. Buy, with a $48 target. x.com 

Amkor and ASE gain as TSMC's advanced-packaging spillover grows, making this the season for outsourced packaging. The share of spillover customers at TSMC has risen drastically, so the Amkor partnership was the viable option, and ASE has huge opportunities too. A post the author replies to calls packaging the biggest bottleneck, with chiplets, compute-memory stacking and silicon photonics driving growth. x.com 

Hanmi Semiconductor combines strong structural positioning with positive sensitivity to hybrid-bonding delays, backed by real TC bonder orders, and it just won a packaging equipment order for Elon Musk's Terafab. SK hynix said at Hot Chips on August 23 that it stays on the existing bonding method through HBM4E, with hybrid bonding starting at 20-high, opening a window of close to three years for delay beneficiaries. x.com 

Amkor stands to gain as outsourced packaging and test providers become central to advanced chips, and its 10-year TSMC deal locks that in. Per @wallstengine, TSMC will procure advanced packaging and testing services from Amkor's Arizona campus, linking TSMC's US chip manufacturing with Amkor's US capacity. The deal is good for CoWoS and great for Amkor, but pressures Intel, whose EMIB moat rests partly on on-shore availability to US fabless customers. x.com  x.com