leki
Equity Investor, Multibagger Research, Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Boost Run gained a strong vote of confidence as Ken Griffin's Citadel took a 5.5% stake as of May 21, less than a month after the de-SPAC. Citadel bought despite the known upcoming shareholder unlock, which suggests it sees upside. A reply cautions that Citadel runs many short-term, opportunistic strategies, so a stake filing alone does not reveal its intent. x.com x.comÂ
Boost Run's low gross margins are not a compelling bear case if it proves its model works. Q1 2026 gross margins of about 40-45% reflect capacity built ahead of future demand and should recover over the next few quarters, and peers that own GPUs must depreciate their capex, so its margins can be similar to theirs. x.com x.comÂ
Boost Run's delivery ahead of schedule and ability to capture higher current compute pricing strengthen its upside case. A release this week shows faster delivery, while management says it will not dilute with equity; guidance could imply $2B ARR exiting 2027. Unlike CoreWeave, it is not locked into stale contract terms. Short interest is 26%, even as the shares are down 75% from their highs and fundamentals improve. x.comÂ
Boost Run gains fresh validation from Nebius, the premier neocloud, now listed as a customer in its latest deck on top of its exemplar status with Nvidia. It is free-cash-flow positive and guiding for 1,233% ARR expansion to over $400M in FY26. The thesis is unchanged, but early lock-up expiry is a serious near-term risk: if the stock stays above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the current float, become eligible to sell. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Boost Run's lock-up expires within days, letting insiders and the CEO sell their shares, which could cause massive selling pressure. That is a big deal and a huge risk against the earlier bull case for the newly listed AI infrastructure provider, built on Nvidia Preferred Cloud Service Provider status, a $1.44B Dell purchase agreement and about $471.7M of take-or-pay contracts for 5,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs. x.com x.comÂ
Boost Run is a high-risk, asymmetric AI-infrastructure bet with real contracts and Nvidia tailwinds, worth a small position if it hits $375 million-plus ARR and proves its platform scales. It has a $940 million contracted backlog, just won a $472 million deal for 5,000 B300 GPUs for Thinking Machines Lab, and deploys GPUs faster than hyperscalers. But at 60-80x sales on $27 million of revenue, loss-making, with high debt and a delayed 10-Q, it can easily drop 50% on a miss or AI cooldown. x.comÂ
Boost Run's contracted utilization answers the depreciation bear case for neoclouds. GPUs are depreciated over 4-6 years, so GAAP margins can look thin while free cash flow is positive; the real risk is chips going obsolete faster than assumed. Thinking Machines' take-or-pay deal is non-cancelable and pays for the full term, locking utilization through the depreciation window. The de-SPAC lockup is an overhang, but insiders with control and earnouts rarely dump, so dips are a chance to add. … Show more
Boost Run faces a near-term lock-up overhang. If the stock holds above $12 for 20 of 30 trading days, an early-release trigger around June 5-9 lets about 24M shares, roughly 3.3x the float, become eligible to sell. A similar post-SPAC release hit CoreWeave 15-22% over 30 days, and typical recent de-SPACs fell 25-40% over 60 days. This is a mechanical event, not a thesis change: Boost Run guides ARR up 1,233% to $400M+ by FY26 year-end and is FCF positive. Remaining shares unlock November 8. … Show more
Boost Run looks like Nebius did in December 2024: an elite AI infrastructure business, structurally mispriced and ignored by institutions. Nebius was then around $31 with no Wall Street coverage and has since risen to about $220, as operators that lease GPU computing to enterprises collected recurring revenue while demand outran supply. Boost Run, newly listed on Nasdaq, has the same setup. x.comÂ
Fears that BRUN's lock-up expiry will flood the stock are wrong because none of the unlocked shares are registered. Traders like @saso_capital, whose post flagging the expiry was cited by DA Davidson, are pushing the stock down on unresearched information. Many who missed the INFQ unlock now think they can catch the next one, and they are wrong. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Boost Run looks like a leasing company rather than a neocloud, left to compete on price forever. It owns little: GPUs are leased, data centers are rented colocation, and its 125 MW is mostly others' capacity. It sells undifferentiated bare metal, the layer even CoreWeave is leaving, and about 21% of FY25 revenue came from pointing idle GPUs at crypto networks amid a GPU shortage. Its customers are leftovers, and a $1.44B Dell commitment dwarfs about $90M raised, after a bridge loan default. … Show more
Citadel clearing out the Situational Awareness positions is good news for IREN, Nebius, Sandisk and Bloom Energy, which had been held hostage by Citadel's volatility-making. Ken Griffin moved surprisingly fast and bought the bottom after spooking the market with rate-hike fears, but in the long run investors in these stocks should feel a sigh of relief. x.com x.comÂ
