Theresa Perrin
Self-Directed Investor & Trader, Former Hospice Nurse
Energy stocks enter the week bullish after the president announced a great oil deal and crude gapped up, a move worth noting for its future impact. The view covers broad energy and exploration-and-production funds, refiners Marathon Petroleum, PBF Energy and Valero, drillers Transocean, Helmerich & Payne and Valaris, and service companies NESR and SLB. x.comÂ
It is time to be long oil again as US officials say thousands of marines and ground forces will continue deploying to the Middle East. x.comÂ
US energy stocks still merit exposure despite today's selloff, because the war premium in oil will likely not go away soon. x.comÂ
Microsoft, Meta and other big tech stocks fell largely on macro, so a likely end to the Iran war could drive a recovery. President Trump said the US will leave within two or three weeks, after Iran's president expressed the will to end the war and sought assurances against renewed aggression. Such a confident timeline suggests a back-channel deal, so this rally is not one to fade. x.comÂ
Oil looks set to rise in the short term because Trump is likely to introduce complications during the intended two-week ceasefire. Funding on Hyperliquid is -700%, and most of those positioned against oil have to be wrong. This is a modest, short-term hedge given how unpredictable Trump is. x.com x.comÂ
US small caps are leading the market, a sign of appetite for risk-on from here. The market clearly wants the Iran conflict wrapped up and the Strait of Hormuz cleared. When Iran's denial came out, stocks sold off only partly and with less momentum, suggesting the market can see beyond negotiations to some kind of peace deal. x.comÂ
Oil should rise and stocks fall over the next two weeks as the Iran war escalates further. Trump ordered the military not to carry out planned strikes on Iran, per Axios, yet the conflict looks set to intensify. Megacap earnings probably won't save the market, since it is punishing negative free cash flow. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
The rally in US large-cap equities is not to be trusted, and a bearish position serves as a hedge in case war escalates, though conviction in the trade is low. Trump's announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire works against that case. x.com x.comÂ
US equities want to go higher off extreme pessimism. The wall of worry reached DEFCON 1 levels over the past several weeks and the Fear & Greed Index dipped into Extreme Fear, leaving opportunity across beaten-down growth stocks and crypto. If the Iran conflict de-escalates at any point, this is about as strong a setup as any since late March. x.comÂ