Caterpillar has stretched too far on valuation relative to its main peers, especially Cummins. United Rentals, despite less direct exposure to data centers, is still catching up on multiples. x.com 

Caterpillar is priced like a turbo-charged Walmart, which is worse for a cyclical company. A quoted post notes it trades at 35x next-twelve-month earnings while EPS estimates are at a record high; its past three big buying opportunities came at about 30x at notable earnings troughs. x.com 

Cummins looks cheap against its earnings, trading at 15x next year's estimate versus the roughly 19x industrial equipment makers usually get. Applying 19x to next year's forecast $34.58 a share, give or take 12%, puts fair value at about $578–736, with the $518.20 price 10% below the low end. The case leans on that forecast, with forward EPS 77% above trailing, and rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates, not fundamental work. x.com 

Caterpillar's strong fundamentals should eventually help its shares find support once investors agree on a new multiple. The stock is down 35% from its peak after a parabolic run; continued separation of gross profit from operating expenses would be welcome. x.com 

Caterpillar is trading on P/E and valuation expansion rather than growth, with 2026 revenue the same as in 2023. It will be attractive to short after its stock split; for now, put premiums are too high. x.com 

Michael Burry's short on Caterpillar looks mistaken given its $72B backlog, up 92% year over year. Per TrendSpider, Burry's biggest shorts now include Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, Nvidia, Micron, Caterpillar and CoreWeave. Shorting some of the purest AI plays in the biggest tech revolution in history to buy Adobe and Lululemon is astounding. x.com 

Caterpillar is an easy short because its price assumed revenue would double, and 24% growth is underwhelming by comparison. That stands even after the stock jumped premarket on what @brent_e_trader called a huge earnings beat and raise. x.com 

Caterpillar looks asymmetric to the downside near $904 because higher-for-longer rates hurt all its lines: data centers, metals and mining capex, and energy. Oil won't let the Fed cut, and Iran seems to be stalling, so fade a deal. Up 3x this year, near its high at over 40x, it faces normalization or a capex cycle reversal. Dealer demand needs healthy financing as IPOs drain liquidity, and model routing could cut compute needs. If wrong, upside looks limited. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Caterpillar looks set to drop hard after a parabolic move. The stock is not cheap, margins are stretched and buyers chased it, which explains why Michael Burry shorted it here. If Burry has called the top, he would close the short around $579. x.com 

Caterpillar has been repriced from a century-old industrial into an AI growth stock at peak euphoria, and insiders who see that as temporary sold $87 million of shares in three months. The rerating came as hyperscalers ordered its engines and generators to power AI data centers. The stock now sits at Livermore's point 9, the test before selling short, as the market enters a correction phase. x.com