Leandro
Equity Analyst at Best Anchor Stocks
Stevanato has more positive news behind it at $17 than it did at $27. Oral drugs are penciling out to about 30% of the GLP-1 market with less uncertainty than months ago, biologics are advancing through the pipeline and starting to show in results, and cartridges are moving to ready-to-use. Management says higher dosages don't necessarily cannibalize lower ones, and its last two investor conferences were probably its most bullish ever. x.comÂ
Stevanato's management gave unusually optimistic forward commentary, supporting 12-15% annual compounding at a constant multiple, and its resilience could justify a higher one. Franco Stevanato's aim to double the company every 5-6 years looks realistic. Management expects the BDS segment to grow double digits, engineering to return to high-single-digit growth at 20-22% gross margins, and high-value solutions to earn 40-70% margins. GLP-1 penetration of 6-8% leaves significant runway. x.com x.comÂ
Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly's retatrutide should accelerate adoption because it raises calorie burn rather than merely suppressing appetite, a bigger leap than the previous generational change. Visible results could turn users into walking advertisements and create peer pressure. Lilly will probably become at least a $5 trillion company in the coming years, roughly 5x with a near-straight-line climb, on a projection of as many as a billion users. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly's Foundayo demand looks stronger than its Q3 sales miss implies. The miss looks like timing and inventory, not weak demand: the pill now has about 40% of new US oral GLP-1 prescriptions, roughly double last quarter. Lilly has 63% of the US GLP-1 market; new overseas pill launches could add another leg next quarter. Foundayo could eventually outsell both Mounjaro and Zepbound. GLP-1 revenue funds Lilly's AI drug-discovery ambitions. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers may benefit as GLP-1 drugmakers lose pricing power. With dozens of GLP-1s in development on top of those available today, no pharmaceutical company appears to have sustainable pricing power, which looks good for Hims & Hers. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly's GLP-1 and metabolic franchise can compound demand and cash flows while rate fears punish leveraged AI stories. It is preferable as a defensive-growth holding into its October 29 earnings over chasing a chip bounce. Continued healthcare volume leadership would support the sleeve; if semiconductors reclaim leadership first, the rotation is already crowded the other way. x.com x.comÂ
Eli Lilly should see further positive revenue revisions as it expands the weight-loss market by reducing gastrointestinal side effects and lowering treatment costs. Strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound drove a second FY2026 revenue guidance raise in three months, to $91B-$92B from $85B-$87B. Lilly Direct and the Medicare Bridge program for seniors aim to make treatment cheaper. At 29x 2027 earnings against 15% revenue and 20% EPS growth projected for 2027-30, Lilly still looks cheap. x.comÂ
A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com x.com x.comÂ
GLP-1 drugs are a secular shift in healthcare spending, and Eli Lilly is leading it. Q1 revenue rose 56% to $19.8B, with Mounjaro up 125% to $8.66B and Zepbound up 80% to $4.16B, and full-year guidance was raised to $82-85B. GLP-1 patients are expected to grow from 20 million to 30 million globally by year-end, and FDA approval of the oral GLP-1 orforglipron expands the addressable market further. x.comÂ
GLP-1 adoption is still early, leaving room for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to remain leaders. Use has climbed from 4% in 2024 to 11% now, but obesity is unlikely to become rare within a decade. Novo is much more compelling at current levels than Lilly. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly merits an Overweight rating and a $1,300 December 2026 target because its pipeline extends the GLP-1 franchise well beyond obesity, and the supply worry that distracted the market is over. Orforglipron, the key underpriced catalyst, beat Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in Phase 3 without food or water limits and launches in H1 2026, opening a far larger pill market. Zepbound sales rose 123% and Mounjaro hit 758,000 weekly scripts, driving leverage. Novo's CagriSema is the main risk. … Show more
