The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
POET isn't worth the time: management is icky, it has a history of promoting its stock rather than its business on social media, and it has no edge over competitors such as Coherent. Even a 5% chance of fraud is reason enough to build big positions in safer names instead. The patents a reply cites don't prove demand or economic viability. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management lacks basic judgment, which outweighs having the perfect product at the perfect time. Its CFO breached an NDA by disclosing the Marvell deal himself, and the stock fell nearly 50%, per @StockSavvyShay. There were red flags with this management group even before. Ondas's CEO shows the focus, consistency and trustworthiness investors should look for instead. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is no investment just because it hasn't run yet in a hot photonics category. It is pre-revenue, has relied on paid stock promotion, and has now been wrecked after its hype efforts angered Marvell. Serious photonics traders never thought anything of it. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' 47% one-day plunge was self-inflicted, not a technology problem, making it an easy buy. Marvell, which bought Celestial AI in February, pulled Celestial's orders citing a confidentiality breach after POET's CFO confirmed the order on Stocktwits. The stock has since rebounded 211.67% in two weeks. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' management has proven its incompetence, which matters because a rotten foundation in leadership keeps a business from flourishing. Per @ren_stocks, the CFO broke an NDA by naming a customer, leading Marvell to cancel its deals just as the stock ran from $5 to $16. On a leadership scoring framework, POET rates poorly: a technically credentialed team with a decade-long pattern of overpromising, chasing hot themes, dilution and now a governance failure. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies has never really had a functioning product, and its lack of revenue speaks for itself. Unlike Bloom Energy, which had a working product before data-center demand arrived, POET has little to show after all these years. Management keeps cashing out instead of keeping real skin in the game. It could still have its day, but treating it as a sure thing was wrong. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies is still very early in its growth. Revenue grew 112% year over year with six straight quarters of sequential growth, and it is showcasing new laser light source technology for AI interconnects this week. It is one worth being patient with. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' optical interposer is probably not that good, judging by Marvell cancelling all orders over an NDA breach. If the technology were mission-critical, production-ready and hard to replace in a tight supply chain, Marvell would likely have preserved the relationship through penalties or renegotiated terms; cancelling suggests it had alternatives. Its CEO also owns only 0.0083% of the float, less than some individual investors. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
POET looks headed toward zero after Marvell cancelled its Celestial AI orders over a confidentiality breach, costing POET basically its only big customer. With only three or four major end customers, who could use COUPE instead, no revenue and ongoing cash burn, its reputation may never recover. The Marvell contract likely helped its $300M-plus raise, so investors may sue for their money back, and the stock could easily fall below $5. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET is now an unknown after Night Market Research's short report alleged its partnership story is dead, so stepping aside makes sense until management gives verifiable counter-evidence. Per the report, Celestial AI says POET hasn't come up internally since 2023, Foxconn executives stopped using it two years ago, Luxshare executives never heard of it and its Toronto HQ was empty. The optical interconnect bottleneck is real, but Lumentum and Coherent are the durable picks in the subsector. x.com … Show more
