FIRED Up Wealth
Motley Fool Analyst & Investment Educator
Celsius Holdings looks attractive as its operating metrics move in the right direction while the share price moves toward value territory. x.comÂ
Celsius looks attractive at about 18x forward earnings after Alani and Rockstar drove revenue higher while its shares fell; continued international growth and wider distribution through Pepsi are key to the upside case. x.comÂ
Celsius carries too much risk despite significant insider buying. Bloom's scanner data, clear shelf-space gains and social momentum challenge Celsius, and freight is a headwind. Alani limited editions are doing well and accelerating slightly, but the core Celsius brand has no acceleration potential until Q1. x.comÂ
Celsius is an absolute steal at about 16 times adjusted free cash flow if management is right that its headwinds are short term. That is the kind of multiple mature, disruptable software companies have been getting recently. x.comÂ
Celsius still looks undervalued after its latest earnings, trading about 59% below its 52-week high despite record revenue of $818 million. First-half revenue grew roughly 50%, and Alani Nu retail sales surged nearly 56%. x.comÂ
Celsius looks unattractive because its moats are thin and it does not control the supply chain that matters for its business. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 32% year over year and the stock is down 32% to a 52-week low since its Alani Nu acquisition rally. A better P/E would be needed to make it interesting. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius's post-earnings drop looks like a huge overreaction to the miss, and buyers should step in soon. Hedge funds bought more shares than they sold last quarter and will want to push the stock back up rather than lose money. x.com x.comÂ
Celsius now trades below the $27.44 a share its CEO John Fieldly just paid for 18,000 shares, letting investors buy cheaper than an insider who is buying. x.comÂ
Celsius increasingly looks like a mature beverage business rather than a hypergrowth story, after a big miss on earnings and revenue. Sales grew just 10%, with growth expected around that level next year, and it is unclear whether this is temporary execution weakness or genuine brand deterioration. At 14x EPS the stock looks cheap, but arguably deserves to until growth stabilizes and reaccelerates. x.comÂ
Celsius is tracking in line with management's projections, and Alani Nu is becoming surprisingly strong, setting up a great 2027 for shareholders. Per NielsenIQ data for the four weeks to September 19, Celsius Holdings' energy drink volume rose 9.8% with a 6.6% average price gain; the Celsius brand family fell 20% while Alani Nu rose 74.3% despite a 4% average price cut. x.comÂ