Teng Yan
Founder of Tessara, AI Buildout & Supply-Chain Research
Intel got to the next wave of chipmaking tools first: High-NA EUV reached its first high-volume production on Intel 18A. ASML's numbers point to a capacity supercycle, probably not a peak, with EUV and DUV capacity each growing about 30% a year for the next two years. That matters because ASML only expands capacity against committed demand, so the whole lithography stack is supply-constrained and building. x.com
Intel's EMIB packaging is becoming an interesting wedge against TSMC as Intel opens it to external customers. Intel has used EMIB internally for a long time and built up expertise. The version in play is EMIB-T, which adds through-silicon vias to the bridge for much higher power delivery and HBM4-class bandwidth, the exact limit that cost plain EMIB the GPU socket last round, and it goes into fabs this year. Per @NuttyCLD, Intel hired former SK Hynix CEO Seok-hee Lee to run advanced packaging. x.com x.com
Intel's high-NA lead and derisked stitching give its foundry technical reasons for much better returns. Per Intel, high-NA is used on selected layers of a subset of Core Ultra Series 3 processors; 18A D0 is already within high-volume manufacturing range. Stitching has been substantially derisked on XT260 and could be ready for volume production in 2027 at the earliest. The foundry turnaround remains a minority bet, and packaging was an added benefit to the high-NA case. x.com
Intel's foundry may be closer than the market assumes because its UMC 12nm partnership brings external-customer experience and a more customer-friendly design kit. Musk said Terafab plans to use Intel 14A, with Tesla and SpaceX building and running the fabs themselves; that would be an important outside test. Intel still must prove yields, volume and schedules, while Terafab's commercial terms remain unclear. Still bullish, but not enough to add now. x.com
Intel will probably offer good trading opportunities, but it is not a stock to hold long term. x.com
Intel getting High-NA EUV working secures ASML's technological moat for the next decade, mattering more than the raised guidance that moved the stock. ASML confirmed High-NA has entered commercial production with lead customer Intel, removing the biggest technical overhang on whether its $350M+ machines work in high-volume manufacturing. Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion and EPS of €7.59 beat estimates with a 54% gross margin, and FY2026 revenue guidance rose to €43-45 billion from €34-39 billion. … Show more
Intel is scaling its foundry turnaround with 18A in high-volume production and yields ahead of plan. Q2 revenue rose 25% to $16.1B, with Panther Lake on 18A. 14A risk production is set for the second half of 2027 and high-volume ramps for 2028, and two prospective 14A customers will decide between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. Capex tops $20B this year and rises sharply in 2027. Nvidia invested $5B and is co-developing custom x86 CPUs; the US government holds 9.9%. x.com
Intel's valuation is at all-time highs while its business condition is near all-time lows. It is more a CPU company than a foundry, and TSMC holds huge scale, capex and process advantages while building substantial US capacity, so the recent rally makes no sense. x.com x.com
Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intel has finally committed to a high-volume ramp of its 14A process in 2028, with 14A risk production for internal products on track for the second half of 2027. Per @BenBajarin's excerpt of the call, management cited growing customer engagement and rising confidence that 14A will be highly competitive on performance, power, density, cost and schedule. x.com
Intel's advanced packaging story is already priced in; the stock got there a little too fast. EMIB and EMIB-T are legit, and the foundry pivot gives Intel a real narrative, but the market has moved ahead of it. x.com
Intel's growing server profit gives its recovery firmer support, though Q4's margin reset limits extrapolation. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3B; foundry losses narrowed to $1.85B but remain substantial. Management guides Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to 38% from 44.1% in Q3, while client sales fell 5%. The 14A milestone alone does not establish external foundry commitments. x.com
