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Jonah Lupton

CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth

26 Sep, 18:52Latest

Nu is going global with best-in-class management, and buying Monzo could be a big growth opportunity. Per @PaulBonnet, Nubank is rumored to buy Monzo for about $13B. Monzo's loans are only 9-10% of deposits versus 85-90% at Nu, and its net margin is half Nu's, so Nu could likely grow Monzo's EPS at least 50% faster than its core. Nu trades under 4x revenue and would pay just under 6x for Monzo. The deal would be dilutive, likely 30% cash and 70% stock, but expands Nu's market. x.com x.com x.com x.com

13 Aug, 23:30

Nu Holdings looks absurdly cheap at about 11.2x next-twelve-month EPS despite elite execution. Q2 revenue rose 50% and net income 67%, and net income should reach at least $5.0B over the next 12 months, about 15% above consensus; even $4.8B would leave it below 12x. Fair value is $24-28 a share, since even with LATAM risk it should trade at no less than 20-24x NTM EPS plus about $2 a share of cash. A US neobank with these numbers would trade at 40x or more. x.com x.com

Crossroads

Retail Investor, YouTube Investing Creator

30 Sep

Nu's outlook improves now that Nubank is not pursuing Monzo via acquisition, easing concern about spreading too thin. The worry was that a deal would come just as Nu ramps in Mexico and Colombia and launches in the United States; add a Super El Nino and it would not have been a disaster, but the market's upset was understandable. x.com x.com

Macro Trader, Credit Markets

30 Sep

Nubank is a good entry again because enough uncertainty is priced in to justify the remaining downside risk. Underwriting and risk-adjusted returns have never been better and keep surprising to the upside, and the loan book is very short-dated. Payroll and secured loans are its next growth wave in Brazil, where it adds 12 million users a year while ARPAC rises. With 40–50%+ ROE and close to 50% revenue growth, it is not out of growth. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Moody

Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research

7 Aug

Nu Holdings' upcoming earnings look unlikely to be well received if the market does not reward Inter & Co's results, since the two have historically traded similarly around earnings. Both operate in the same credit cycle, but Nu has a much lower share of secured lending, putting it at a credit-risk disadvantage, though it is more diversified across countries. x.com

Brad Freeman

Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd

13 Aug

Nu Holdings delivered another strong quarter and still has plenty of room to raise revenue per customer. Accounting revenue of $5.51B came in 2.6% ahead of Bloomberg consensus. @two_chump notes Nu now has 139 million customers, 50% more than JPMorgan. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Thierry from arvy

CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing

14 Aug

Nu Holdings trades at only 12x forward earnings despite strong growth, expanding profitability and operating leverage across its businesses and products. It costs under $1 to serve a customer, with no branches, paperwork or hidden fees; it reached 130+ million customers in eleven years and runs a 20% efficiency ratio versus 55% for the average bank. Per @JonahLupton, Q2 revenue rose 50% and net income 67%; he puts it near 11.2x next-twelve-month EPS with fair value of $24-28 per share. x.com … Show more

Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan

Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels

14 Oct

Nu's prolonged app-access failure makes its claim to be a strong tech bank doubtful and could deter other Americans from using it. Five days after being locked out abroad, selecting the US still has not restored access; Nu's support suggested that same step. After this banking experience, investing in Nu no longer makes sense. x.com x.com x.com

Ashton Invests

Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research

1 Oct

Nu Holdings still has a massive runway as Nubank expands deeper across Latin America, having already built one of the region's largest digital banking platforms. x.com

Finance Jack

Equity Research

26 Oct

Nu Holdings' growth under Lula makes today's selloff look absurd. On a TTM basis since Q1 2023, revenue rose 270% and net income went from a $180 million loss to $3.61 billion, or $0.74 EPS; having done so well during his term, it should be fine going forward. x.com x.com x.com

Rose Celine Investments

Equity Investor

15 Aug

Nu's 33% ROE is not proven until it survives a full credit cycle, because a bank's underwriting is only tested when borrowers stop paying. Per @sytaylor, Q2 revenue rose 39% to $5.9bn and net income topped $1bn. The open question is what happens to that ROE when unemployment rises, payments are missed, credit losses climb and money gets more expensive. Brazil's slowing economy and rising NPLs are not the same as a full cycle; until then the reported ROE is somewhat fake. x.com x.com x.com

Noah

Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities

8 Jul

SOFI

SoFi and Nu are deeply undervalued because legacy banks cannot undercut neobanks' pricing power. Incumbents carry huge headcounts, thousands of branches, hundreds of tech vendors and no way to consolidate their data onto one platform. Neobanks run with no branches, a few thousand employees and their own tech stacks. Even heavy digital investment would take legacy banks at least half a decade, by which time SoFi and Nu could be the top two US banks by customer count. x.com x.com x.com

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