Uber is becoming very attractive as it trades near its lowest valuation ever, about 16.4 times EV to free cash flow, according to a post the author replies to. x.com
Mr. Misunderstood
Long-Term Investor, Misunderstood Businesses & Asymmetric Upside
Uber is well on its way to becoming a compounding machine: revenue and free-cash-flow growth have been strong and consistent, while its moat widens through network effects and its flywheel ecosystem. At 23x forward earnings it looks like a very interesting opportunity, and the bear narratives are often overblown. x.com
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.com
Uber will suffer from autonomous vehicles, and at 21x EV/EBITDA the stock leaves no room for that risk. It becomes interesting only below 7x. x.com
Uber's rising operating margins make the market's apparent dismissal of it look misplaced. Its trailing operating margin climbed from -13% in March 2022 to 12% in June 2026, continuing the earlier case that improving profitability is underappreciated. x.com
Uber Technologies looks cheap against its cash earnings at $70.24. It trades at 17 times cash earnings, while software companies usually get 30 times. Thirty times next year's cash earnings implies fair value of $113.88–144.94, leaving the stock 38% below the low end. x.com
Uber's valuation is out of balance with its fundamental trajectory over the medium term, and the long-term thesis is less convincing than it once was. It became a cash-flow machine sooner than expected, but the past couple of years have been a grind. It is a hold now and a sell if it reaches the top of its technical channel around $100. x.com x.com
Uber looks cheap at a 7% free-cash-flow yield while growing non-GAAP EPS 25-30% a year. Waymo would need to hurry its autonomous fleet rollout worldwide to catch up. x.com
Uber is one of the most interesting opportunities in the market, down 31% from its highs while printing more cash. The market treats it as a low-margin business that autonomous driving could disrupt, missing its real moat: distribution. A network of consumers, drivers and merchants is very hard to replicate and lets it add verticals without paying acquisition costs again. Uber also owns about 13% of Grab, down 85% and building financial services on the same model. x.com
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com
Uber looks cheap at 15x price to free cash flow, about a 31% discount to its historic average valuation. x.com