Owning bitcoin, a digital pet rock, may not be the best idea when productivity is booming. x.comĀ
Jason Kam
Founder of Folius Ventures
Bitcoin is closer to speculation than investment because it produces nothing. Even if it becomes the dominant currency, stocks, real estate and business profits would simply be priced in it, so owning productive assets captures value whatever the world's currency. Buying bitcoin adds a separate bet that its monetary premium keeps rising against productive assets, and if adoption fails the whole bet can be lost. x.comĀ x.comĀ
Bitcoin is not an investment because it is a non-productive asset. x.comĀ
Historic debt levels and currency debasement make Bitcoin's role as a store of value more important than ever, countering Jason Calacanis's call to sell it. x.comĀ
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.comĀ
Bitcoin's core theses no longer seem real or relevant: it has not worked as digital gold preserving purchasing power and hedging inflation and geopolitical instability, institutional adoption has not strengthened its value, and its asymmetric upside against gold's roughly $15 trillion market cap has not materialized, even though 2026 should be a perfect year for it. That leaves only halving cycles, which makes it look like a silly asset class. x.comĀ
Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.comĀ
Bitcoin is a scam and nothing more than a greater-fool trade, because it is pure speculation with no intrinsic cash flow. It is overhyped as a wealth-builder and rarely lifts anyone out of their financial situation; in Charlie Munger's words, it is rat poison. Fading excitement and buying show people are figuring that out. x.comĀ x.comĀ x.comĀ
Bitcoin is unlikely to stage a 2020-style V-shaped recovery because crypto keeps competing with AI for capital, and the flows have clearly gone to equities, especially AI names. The 2020 rebound followed a pandemic, a doubling of the money supply, rate cuts and stimulus checks; today global liquidity is at a record, but rates could rise. Bitcoin may still be a great buy here. @Bobby_1111888 argues the macro backdrop is the most 2020-like since then and the AI headwind may be turning. x.comĀ x.comĀ
Bitcoin and etherās resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.comĀ x.comĀ
Bitcoin has been in free fall since Philippe Laffont told CNBC he no longer finds it interesting, given attractive new secular-growth IPOs and stablecoins. Chip stocks offer real earnings, value and momentum instead, and hawkish talk from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh adds pressure. x.comĀ x.comĀ