Merlijn The Trader
Bitcoin & Altcoin Trader, Founder of Profitz Academy
Coinbase is holding the CLARITY Act hostage to protect its stablecoin yield revenue. Its chief legal officer says either rewards are included or there is no CLARITY. Coinbase makes $1.35 billion a year from stablecoin yield, which explains why the most important crypto bill in history is still stuck on one company's revenue model. x.com
Coinbase's CEO is holding the stock back by blocking crypto market-structure legislation to protect his revenue. Brian Armstrong killed the bill that would have unlocked trillions for crypto twice in one month, shielding a 34% yield commission. The stock could have risen 10x with regulatory clarity. x.com
Coinbase still has no business model in crypto bear markets, while Robinhood has become a profit-making machine. x.com
Coinbase's revenue suffers because crypto trading volumes always dry up when prices fall. Per Polymarket, Coinbase transaction revenue fell 40% year over year. x.com
Coinbase stands to be a major long-term winner from the CLARITY Act, which would remove the regulatory uncertainty keeping Wall Street institutions out, making the largest compliant US exchange their first stop. A Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise bans pure passive stablecoin interest but allows rewards tied to real usage, so Coinbase can keep paying active users, though stablecoin products, about 20% of 2025 revenue, need adjusting. Markup is set for May, with signing possible by July-August. x.com
Coinbase's likeliest price path is lower as bitcoin finishes the final leg of its bear market. @BobLoukas argues Coinbase is bloated and overvalued, with horrible customer service, crypto retail activity dead, customers having other options and an underwhelming Base chain. x.com
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.com
Coinbase remains a buy-the-dip crypto holding, but now ranks behind Circle. It has lagged amid prolonged CLARITY Act uncertainty, faces revenue risk from the ongoing USDC custody renegotiation with Circle, and miners shifting to AI temper the trading-volume outlook. Circle is the preferred stablecoin exposure because stablecoins are the natural payment rail for AI agents. Basket weights stay unchanged, with a lean toward adding to Circle as the highest-conviction name. x.com
Circle and bitcoin stand to gain most if the Clarity Act passes, because it gives stablecoins legal clarity for the first time so banks, institutions and funds can legally enter. Stablecoins in circulation top $300B, up from $200B a year ago; Circle's USDC holds 20-25% of the market and Tether, which owns treasuries, gold and bitcoin, 55-60%. The industry wants it signed by July 4, with Polymarket odds near 60%. Banks, with $6T+ of deposits paying almost no interest, are lobbying against it. … Show more
Circle faces pricing pressure because stablecoin infrastructure has low barriers to entry, which is why it stays an underweight with only small exposure. The risk showed when Circle fell 13% as Stripe, Coinbase and BlackRock backed a rival stablecoin, Open USD. x.com x.com
Passage of the CLARITY Act would send Coinbase to $250. Trump is urging Congress to pass the crypto bill, and @MasonVersluis says the Act is indeed coming. x.com x.com
Coinbase is expensive against its cash earnings. At $184.53 it trades at 70x cash earnings and 62x next year's, while the industry usually gets 30x. Fair value is $78.24–$99.58, or 30x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the stock 85% above the high end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
