Zynx
Bitcoin Treasury Analyst, Strategic Adviser to Falconedge
Silver has failed as a monetary asset, so it should be priced at its utility value, and it is still overpriced. It fell from $120 to $56 and may not make another all-time high for 15 years, even though nobody talks about it now. Silver is not the next store of value; Bitcoin is superior in every way, with a much larger TAM. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver is not a store of value, because supply always rises to meet demand eventually; nobody stacks a commodity for the next 20 years. It traded at $30 in 1980 and $48 in 2011, and months after talk of $200 it sits at $75. Gold also failed as a monetary asset and is obsolete in the digital age, while bitcoin is the hardest money built for modern times. A post the author quotes adds that buyers above $120 could be stuck a long time after a blow-off top. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver's earlier mass euphoria could give way to comparable pain, leaving it attractive only at $25-$35. A correction of 75% or more has historically been normal; reaching that range may take time, and it may never happen. x.comÂ
Silver is worth exiting completely over time, selling into the next major pump with no rush. Over the long run it does not keep up with inflation, gold or bitcoin, and it carries ridiculous buying and selling fees and low liquidity. x.comÂ
Silver could surprise to the upside after losing over 50% of its value, precisely because everyone now agrees it will go lower. x.comÂ
Silver's bearish signal is the huge number of likes on Rashad Hajiyev's $200 call, pointing instead to $20 over the next three years. The final low is due in late 2029 to early 2030 under the dominant seven-year cycle, whose lows came in 2001, 2008, 2015 and 2022; the 2020 Covid low was an anomaly, not a four-year cycle. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.comÂ
Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com x.comÂ
Silver's 30% rally off its lows was likely the bulk of the move in this 20-week cycle, and metals should weaken as the dollar index rallies off its 80-day cycle low toward 100. Silver hit the $72 target and fell 6.8% in three hours. Cycles point to a 40-day low in early September, a bounce, then a 20-week low around October, with $48-49 the ideal fall target. September is the seasonal peak and October to mid-November is typically bearish; if the dollar regains 100, metals will struggle. x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply makes it preferable to oil, gold and silver, whose higher prices encourage more production. Sell those three commodities and buy Bitcoin. A gold-normalized historical scarcity-resistance ranking scores silver 83.6 and WTI oil 72.1 against gold's 100; it tracks historical loss of purchasing power to Bitcoin, not physical scarcity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver can stabilize around its previous cycle all-time high, but the long-term bull case is limited because its scarcity is nowhere near that of gold or bitcoin. x.comÂ
Gold, silver and bitcoin are in a cyclical downturn driven by a rallying dollar, even though the secular debasement trade remains on. The dollar index hit a 13-month high, tightening everything priced in dollars and unwinding crowded positions: gold is under $4,000, off about 25%, silver is down about 40% and bitcoin is below $60,000. Over decades fiat erodes, driven by fiscal dominance rather than the Fed's balance sheet, so size for the cycle and position for the secular trend. x.com x.com … Show more
