Rekt Fencer
Founder of X DAO, Crypto Trading Guides
Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com x.comÂ
Silver can stabilize around its previous cycle all-time high, but the long-term bull case is limited because its scarcity is nowhere near that of gold or bitcoin. x.comÂ
Silver's predicted third sell-off is well advanced, and an AI-induced bust could drag it lower first, though there is a small chance it is near its last local low. Longer term, the falling wedge will likely resolve as an upside continuation pattern. @DonDurrett expects sub-$60 silver and sub-$4,000 gold as Chinese appetite fades, with the correction likely not over. x.com x.comÂ
The earlier FX-reserve drain suggests silver is likely to stay trapped until the Fed capitulates if austerity does not arrive. In 1972-74, the correction was 44%, followed by an 18-month trap. A long position after quarters without one remains tentative; austerity would mean exiting or reversing. x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Silver's earlier mass euphoria could give way to comparable pain, leaving it attractive only at $25-$35. A correction of 75% or more has historically been normal; reaching that range may take time, and it may never happen. x.comÂ
Silver could see a systemic shock and full price discovery, signaled by institutions stacking deep out-of-the-money options at $900-1,000 while spot sits near $80. That positioning, flagged by @CryptoNobler, is not hedging but a direct bet on a black swan; retail trades the present while institutions position ahead. x.comÂ
Silver is set up for a strong run in precious metals into the second half, because the SLV risk reversal has tilted toward puts while silver sits back at its support range, a credible setup. x.comÂ
Silver has failed as a monetary asset, so it should be priced at its utility value, and it is still overpriced. It fell from $120 to $56 and may not make another all-time high for 15 years, even though nobody talks about it now. Silver is not the next store of value; Bitcoin is superior in every way, with a much larger TAM. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold and silver are setting up for a metals mania, with the bottom already put in back in July. Gold shows a bullish divergence and an engulfing candle poking into a real breakout, and markets will soon see a 25bps dovish hike as no different from holding rates. Silver has an inverse head-and-shoulders attempting a fresh breakout and is about to outpace the dollar for the first time since last year; the last such rotation saw silver surge 190%. The bear case is $80/oz. x.com x.comÂ