Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.com 

Silver has failed as a monetary asset, so it should be priced at its utility value, and it is still overpriced. It fell from $120 to $56 and may not make another all-time high for 15 years, even though nobody talks about it now. Silver is not the next store of value; Bitcoin is superior in every way, with a much larger TAM. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Silver can stabilize around its previous cycle all-time high, but the long-term bull case is limited because its scarcity is nowhere near that of gold or bitcoin. x.com 

Gold, silver and bitcoin are in a cyclical downturn driven by a rallying dollar, even though the secular debasement trade remains on. The dollar index hit a 13-month high, tightening everything priced in dollars and unwinding crowded positions: gold is under $4,000, off about 25%, silver is down about 40% and bitcoin is below $60,000. Over decades fiat erodes, driven by fiscal dominance rather than the Fed's balance sheet, so size for the cycle and position for the secular trend. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Gold depends on finding a greater fool to buy it, which is increasingly problematic because bitcoin is a perfectly scarce version of gold that is portable over the internet. x.com 

Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com  x.com 

There is no reason to hold gold. x.com 

Bitcoin's fixed supply is a flaw, not an advantage, because it replaces arbitrary fiat over-issuance with an equally arbitrary fixed quantity. Under a gold standard, the market decides supply: gold is minted into money when circulating money is short, melted into jewelry or shipped abroad when prices are too high, and mining rises as deflation cuts costs. Jewelry demand is the source of gold's value. Bitcoin repeats the mistake of Robert Peel's 1844 attempt to fix the circulating medium. x.com  … Show more

Silver is the next leg of the falling-value-of-money trade and is about to rip, because its freely tradable market has become so thin that a handful of buyers can move it violently. Its borrowing cost spiked from under 1% to nearly 40% in a week. What thinned it isn't reversing: the US Treasury stockpile hit zero in 2002, photography demand has already shrunk, and byproduct mining can't respond. Against the money supply, gold is back to 42% of its 1980 level but silver only 11%. x.com 

Gold is falling because a resilient, accelerating economy pushes yields and the dollar higher, and no one wants safe havens in a risk-on market. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is accelerating, and yields are rising even as crude falls, so the move reflects growth rather than inflation fears; the bond market is giving the Fed permission to hike. Gold, precious metals, Treasuries and defensive stocks have slumped, with staples and utilities at all-time lows relative to the S&P 500. x.com