Merlijn The Trader
Bitcoin & Altcoin Trader, Founder of Profitz Academy
Crypto treasury companies are stalling because the buyers of last resort have stopped buying and started paying out. Strategy trades below the value of its own bitcoin and is now selling BTC to cover dividends. BitMine is down 86% and $9 billion underwater on its Ethereum, no longer raising capital, just paying out. Neither was ever a clean crypto bet; each was a leveraged premium dressed up as one. x.comÂ
Strategy is buying Bitcoin high and selling it low, which is not a winning strategy. Michael Saylor says Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216M to fund dividends on its Digital Credit securities, leaving 843,775 BTC and $2.55B in USD reserves. x.comÂ
BitMine Immersion Technologies holds about $16 billion of Ethereum and faces massive losses as liquidity drains from crypto. Like Strategy, it is exposed to a collapse in crypto values. x.comÂ
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.comÂ
Bitcoin and ether will go much higher at some point on simple supply and demand, driven by a steady bid from treasury companies and recent ETF inflows. Last week Strategy bought 34,164 BTC for $2.54B and Bitmine added 101,627 ETH for $235M, both funded by equity, so there is no liquidation price. Adjusted for market cap, Bitmine's week equals Saylor spending $1.35B on bitcoin. Strategy now holds 4.07% of all bitcoin and Bitmine 4.12% of all ether. x.comÂ
Strategy's structure forces it to sell bitcoin into its own drawdown. It needs dollars for preferred obligations and can either sell equity or sell bitcoin. With MSTR down 83% from its high, issuing stock costs far more shares, and since the stock falls with bitcoin, the equity route gets expensive exactly when bitcoin is weak. This week it did both, selling 1,638 BTC at $63,957 against a $75,419 cost basis and issuing $290.6M of stock. x.comÂ
BitMine Immersion broke its downtrend this week for the first time since the crypto-treasury bubble popped in August 2025. Owning it below $20 should look prudent once Ethereum hits its expected targets over the next few years. x.comÂ
Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy keeps diluting common shareholders with no end in sight, so bitcoin bulls are better off owning bitcoin directly. It sold another $544M of MSTR through its ATM last week, making its $25M STRC repurchase mere signaling, and bitcoin per share has fallen since June 1. Dilution makes it improbable the shares reach conversion on billions of convertible debt, and larger bitcoin sales grow likelier as the premium compresses, probably alongside a BTC drop. An FTX-style collapse is not expected. … Show more
Tokenization, stablecoins and perpetual futures are driving Ethereum and ETH proxies such as BitMine higher. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight on BitMine with a $63.60 target, 137% upside. BitMine now holds 4.9% of all ETH, nearly at Fundstrat's 5% goal. x.comÂ
Strategy's bitcoin flywheel doesn't work in a bear market: below 1x mNAV, issuing stock to buy bitcoin loses money, so it defends the share price instead. It spent $139 million last week and bought zero bitcoin, putting raised money into its own stock, and until mNAV gets back above 1 it can't buy a single coin. @JamesIIIIIII adds that below 1x mNAV the flywheel becomes a treadmill, since the balance-sheet story works only while the market pays a premium for the wrapper. x.com x.comÂ
