Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's funding machine is breaking as its STRC preferred trades far below $100 par, threatening a death spiral. STRC pays about 11.5% and lets Strategy buy bitcoin only while near par; at a new low of about $82, issuance stops, yet cash dividends are still due. Cash has fallen from $2.25 billion to about $1 billion, and Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May to cover STRC obligations. Higher payouts mean more bitcoin sales, which hit bitcoin's price and confidence, pushing STRC lower again. x.com 

Strategy's approval to sell up to $1.25B of bitcoin for STRC dividends and debt interest removes the market's one big potential forced seller for now, leaving bitcoin's low float to push it to new highs. The move stretches the dividend runway from 5-6 months to 15+ months, or 25+ with the sale. With HODLed supply at a record, expect more chop, then new all-time highs and some altcoin outperformance. The risk: in a later secular bear market, Strategy's selling could feed a downward spiral. x.com  … Show more

Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com 

Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.com 

Strategy's model of lending against bitcoin holds up because a rising reserve asset sets a hurdle for investment, not a prohibition. If bitcoin rises 20% and an enterprise turns $100 into $140, it still grows wealth in bitcoin terms by 16.7%. The hurdle also falls as bitcoin matures, like any asset whose prospective return drops as its price rises. From 2013 through 2025, simply holding bitcoin beat almost any effort, but early adoption is a poor discount rate for every future investment. x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

There is no reason to own Strategy until bitcoin has a bid, as it now solves huge problems with temporary fixes, like an emerging-market central bank. It is no longer a bitcoin buyer; crypto's $38 billion post-election buyer now carries solvency risk. Michael Saylor has repeatedly broken promises such as keeping NAV ratios and not selling bitcoin, making the equity riskier than BTC. That holds until treasury-company insolvency risk fades, rate cuts look likely and bitcoin regains appeal. x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com