Willem Middelkoop
Founder of Commodity Discovery Fund, Author of The Big Reset
Sitka Gold is likely to be sold within the next few years for well over $1bn as major producers circle its growing gold discovery. It has found over 5 million ounces since 2022, and its current 50,000-meter drill program might add a few million more this year. Several major producers sent geologists and business development and evaluation specialists on a recent site visit and showed great interest. The market cap has already risen from under $15mln to over $300mln. x.com x.comÂ
International Tower Hill's Livengood deposit, 13.6M ounces of gold fully owned in Alaska, has become worth developing with gold above $4,000/oz. It sat untouched for years because the math didn't work. Fresh drilling has begun, and a new CEO/COO team, an ex-$1B financing executive and a former Kinross Alaska operations chief, aims to push it toward feasibility and construction. John Paulson holds a major stake. It is still pre-production; the chart shows a falling-wedge breakout on volume. x.comÂ
Gold miners' record margins and sustained central-bank gold buying support the sector's bullish setup. Average AISC margins reached $3,076/oz in Q1, up 134% year over year, per the World Gold Council; gold remains above $4,100/oz. Central banks bought a record 289 tonnes in Q2. The watched bull-flag trigger for GDX is $89.76. x.comÂ
Gold miners, unlike gold itself, turn a higher gold price into compounding cash returns. On a path to $8,000 gold, margins would widen far beyond today's roughly $2,400 an ounce even if all-in sustaining costs rose a third to $2,650. Free cash flow per share is at a record of about $15.70, roughly tripled since 2024, and the industry is buying back stock rather than mines, a combination never seen before. Relative to the S&P 500, miners have never been cheaper, not in 2008, 2015 or 2020. x.com … Show more
Seasonality is unfavorable for gold over the next few weeks, adding to the intermediate downside case. Based on 30-50 years of data, this is not one of the preferred 70% zones and seasonality is only a confluence, never a standalone signal. Losing the $3,955 low opens a normal backtest toward $3,450; gold tends to bottom in mid-November and mid-March. A pullback to the $3,000 area, if it occurs, would be a long-term buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
B2Gold's new Mali permit opens Fekola Regional production, while completion of its gold prepay lets future ounces sell at spot. Fekola Regional is expected to add over 150,000 oz annually from 2028 into the mid-2030s; management expects significant free cash flow. The bull-flag setup watches $4.92 support. x.comÂ
Gold miners have not yet priced in what record gold prices mean for the sector, and the window to get in is shrinking. Newmont beat Q1 profit estimates even though output fell, showing the gold price tailwind is covering operational shortfalls; earnings should rise further when production normalizes. The majors have pricing power they have not had in years and operating leverage is building, while most investors remain in tech. x.com x.comÂ
Gold can go much higher over time, possibly to $10,000 eventually, because currency debasement is real, governments are not becoming fiscally disciplined and debt is not disappearing. The recent quiet after a 15-20% pullback changed only the price, not the fundamentals. Still, gold produces nothing and can do little for years after speculative runs, so it may protect wealth while great businesses compound it, which makes productive assets the preferred vehicle. x.comÂ
Gold demand may be shifting toward ETFs, which could bring a new wave of buying. Central banks bought 130 tonnes year to date, 19% less than last year's 160, yet gold is still near record highs. China added 20 tonnes in July and Poland 8, while Korea bought $250M of a gold ETF instead of physical gold. Slower central-bank buying alongside strong prices could be a bullish signal. x.comÂ
Gold mining stocks are worth owning heavily because the sector is generating extraordinary profits at current metal prices. Per Tavi Costa, gold miners are doing more share buybacks than at any point in history, on a scale never seen before, as a direct result of that profitability. You can't own enough gold stocks in view of what is coming. x.comÂ
The gap between gold miners and the metal is the trade most are missing. Producers carry operating leverage, central banks haven't stopped buying, and the paper price doesn't set the physical demand curve. @OJRenick spots GDX calls outpacing puts 5:1 as gold tries to break its multi-month downtrend. The gap closes both ways. x.comÂ
