Co-packaged optics standards could make finished transceiver modules smaller and more interchangeable as chip designers build optical engines inside their packages. That is another reason to avoid Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics and prefer Soitec. Lumentum and Coherent now earn a lot from finished modules, leaving them exposed if the architecture changes. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics is in the right place at the right time but isn't a high-quality business; it mainly serves as spillover capacity when Lumentum, Coherent and Marvell can't meet demand, so why own it over Marvell? Management also draws terrible Glassdoor reviews, 1.7 of 5 stars, 1% CEO approval and 7% recommending it across 124 reviews, pointing to high turnover and operating risk. The tone of its earnings call was also off-putting. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' case now hinges on visible production progress. Its drop on OpenAI's revenue run-rate figures reflected an accounting question, not any change in laser or memory supply, per Carrio Research. If AAOI fails again next quarter and pushes its timelines out another quarter, it will be ugly. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' durability beyond the pluggable cycle is in doubt: instead of staying euphoric on pluggable growth, the market is already asking what comes next. It still has a low starting valuation and accelerating fundamentals, but longer-term durability is missing, and the stock failed to bounce hard after a sharp drawdown. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' roughly $12B valuation is absurd any way you look at it, even after management raised its mid-2027 projection to $471M in monthly revenue. It doesn't hold up on 2027 revenue, let alone earnings or the margin compression co-packaged optics would bring. Management will keep overpromising and underdelivering, could face legal trouble over what looks like a pump and dump, and has been in such trouble before; its own employees deride the company. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com  x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics is lagging as the market becomes more discerning between low-quality companies and high-quality ones with durable growth. @GavinSBaker said weeks ago the AI bottleneck trade was over, and that has played out in optics: Lumentum keeps climbing while weaker names like Applied Optoelectronics lag. x.com  x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics has a better chance than Coherent of delivering a 300-400 mW laser with tolerable RIN and linewidth. Its transceiver capacity ramp is also larger and is not gated by Sumitomo's 6-inch InP wafers. Long AAOI against short COHR is an unnecessarily dangerous pair trade idea. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics is diluting shareholders with a $600M offering, which sent the stock down 9% after hours. Management likes to burn shareholders, so staying away for now. x.com  x.com  x.com