Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
Circle faces a senior management transition without a clear replacement after its CFO resigned abruptly, a risk not worth ignoring. Capital is better kept in the highest-conviction areas, semiconductors and AI infrastructure, though the medium-term view on bitcoin stays bullish and this call could prove wrong. x.comÂ
Circle's valuation is far too high to consider right now, given risks from crypto sentiment and margin pressure. That holds despite strong momentum: Q4 revenue rose 77% to $770M with a solid EPS beat, it has launched institutional payment platforms and expanded African partnerships, and potential US stablecoin legislation is a tailwind. x.comÂ
Circle looks set to turn back into an uptrend from a massive weekly base, with insider selling pressure likely exhausted. Nearly two years after the IPO, insiders and VCs who wanted to sell are probably gone, and the crypto theme is hot. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is a better buy than Circle, whose shares trade along with Bitcoin anyway. Circle also carries policy risk, which makes it a stock not worth backing. x.comÂ
Charles Schwab and Circle Internet Group both look like good shorts, building on @tailrisked's remark: "literally charles schwab rip." x.comÂ
Circle Internet Group looks set up to move after completing its first-year IPO base and recovering its 200-day moving average. It is near an accumulation zone, and key fundamentals are positive and growing. x.comÂ
Circle does not look like a buy after its drop if a new rival stablecoin has broken its business model. Per @puckrin, Stripe, Coinbase, Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock and more than 140 others launched Open USD, which charges zero minting fees and hands reserve yield back to partners; that yield is Circle's business model, which @puckrin calls an existential threat. Circle stock fell 14% on the news. x.com x.comÂ
Circle's long-term multi-bagger thesis, that USDC becomes a key part of next-generation payment rails, no longer looks on track. In just the past few days, 140 entities, including many major names, partnered with OUSD, and Robinhood announced a 7% yield program via USDG. Circle can still be a successful business, and its fall to the targeted ~$64 entry level looks justified by fundamentals, so the 'Circle is poised to dominate' case is crumbling. x.comÂ
Circle is building a network-effect moat by tying the biggest exchanges and payment players to USDC, to compete as the default settlement asset in trading and payments. Its deeper Binance deal is now its only exchange tie combining equity, incentive fees and wallet integration, second only to Coinbase. Coinbase, Binance and Hyperliquid hold where money sits; Intuit, JCB, Nium and Tazapay move it; CPN and Arc aim to settle it. Dominance isn't secured yet, and rivals are expanding too. x.com x.comÂ
SoFi is struggling and its leadership's blockchain push looks like a substitute for a real plan. CEO Anthony Noto calls blockchain the fix for archaic financial infrastructure, but SoFi is caught between sector rotation and agentic AI. Bulls cite $1.2B of net revenue, a pre-operating-expense metric, yet SoFi's profit margin is about 14% versus Robinhood's 42%, and it spends about 4x as much on sales and marketing. Its new stablecoin launched with a $60k transaction, years behind Circle. x.com … Show more