SasoEquity
AI & Robotics Investor
AST SpaceMobile's Q2 showed spending scaling faster than revenue, with no date for the commercial service the stock is priced on. Revenue of $31.5M missed and EPS of -$0.77 missed by about 2x, while capex more than doubled to $610M. Government is a minority of the $1.3B backlog, and radar, not direct-to-device, drives most US government revenue so far. Management would not commit to revenue timing, and holding cost at $21-23M per satellite is unproven at higher build rates. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's mid-June launch date is in doubt because management has not said satellite stacking is solved. Abel said they are "very close" to six satellites a month and stacking, and Scott said the three-stack will happen "very shortly." That wording implies final tests and SpaceX approvals likely remain on BlueBirds 8-10 before they are ready to ship, an analysis credited to Stuart. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's price is being set by whoever published most recently, because there is no recurring business yet underneath to argue with. Its 9% jump on Berenberg's $92 Buy initiation rested on figures from its Q2 release; within a quarter it traded at $133.67, sold converts at $149.20 and now sits at $61. Q2 revenue was $31.5 million, only $7.1 million from services, mostly government milestones. Cash is strong, and two quarters of operator-driven services growth would change the view. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's reliance on competitor SpaceX for satellite launches weakens its moat further. SpaceX has bought its own spectrum, raising competitive risk. Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS over the pace of 2026-27 launches and SpaceX's potential to limit launch availability or undercut service pricing, though the bank remains constructive beyond 2027. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's satellite network, which connects directly to regular phones, is starting to turn into revenue. Q2 revenue was $31.5 million, up from $1.2 million a year earlier, and it reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $150-200 million. It has 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit with about 45 targeted by early 2027, around $1.3 billion of contracted revenue, and roughly 60 carrier partners including AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's progress toward its goals and revenue projections is good, but the question is how much future hype is already priced into the valuation. The bull thesis still holds, though not strongly enough to buy more in the $80s, and less-known opportunities look more appealing. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's negative fundamentals make this a time for patience. Trailing net income is -$811 million, free cash flow -$1.74 billion and EPS -$2.14; wait for a catalyst change, specifically growing earnings. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is becoming a commercial space infrastructure platform whose satellites can serve carriers, governments, defense, sovereign networks, emergency communications and orbital AI compute. It ended Q2 with a $1.3B backlog and over $3.7B of pro forma liquidity, builds six satellites a month at $21-23M each, and its custom ASIC is in full production. Long-term potential is enormous, but launch delays could again push back the goal of about 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027. x.com … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's latest quarter shows how far it remains from making money, a very different result from Rocket Lab's. Per @StockSavvyShay, AST's Q1 revenue was $15M versus $37M expected and EPS was -$0.66 versus -$0.20, with 2026 revenue guidance of $175M below estimates, though it holds $3.5B in cash and targets 45 satellites by end-2026. x.comÂ
