fred hickey
Editor of The High-Tech Strategist, Since 1987
Oil prices are quickly heading to $100 a barrel as the Middle East war escalates with no end in sight, and gasoline and diesel prices are jumping too. Climbing bond yields, a possible unwinding of the hedge-fund basis trade in the $31 trillion Treasury market, and souring sentiment on hyperscaler datacenter spending could test stock-market complacency in the coming weeks. x.comΒ
Crude oil is headed for $150 a barrel, with the S&P 500 set to fall 25%. A string of US refinery and oil and gas infrastructure outages, such as the Colonial Pipeline incident flagged by @BankerWeimar, is striking as it coincides with a war in the Middle East. x.comΒ x.comΒ
Oil is surging toward $100 as the Hormuz standoff deepens: US crude is near $95 a barrel, up 41% since July 2, and could top $100 by Friday unless something changes. Per CENTCOM, US forces destroyed an Iranian tanker in the Gulf of Oman after attempted IRGC attacks on a US warship, while Trump says there will be no negotiations. Higher oil would make inflation much worse just ahead of the FOMC. x.comΒ x.comΒ
Crude oil should fall back into the $60s and likely well below over time once the Iran war is resolved. Middle East producers are overproducing but cannot export the barrels, so when the Strait fully reopens they will flood the market. Oil tried to break down from its trend line but was rejected, and bigger resolution news is likely needed to push it much lower. Cheaper oil would remove current inflation fears, setting up a deflationary boom. x.comΒ x.comΒ
Crude oil's last cushion is gone as recovering demand squeezes constrained Middle East supply. Barclays puts China imports near pre-war levels at 10.5m b/d, India up 600,000 b/d year on year and Middle East flows at 84% of pre-war levels; US demand is recovering. After more than 500m barrels of inventory were drawn down, buyers are paying a $13/bbl premium for next-week cargoes over the front-month contract, versus under $4 a week into the war. x.comΒ
An imminent Israeli strike on Iran puts Gulf oil infrastructure at unusually high risk over the next three months, supporting a near-term rise in crude oil. Large trades are betting on oil reaching $115 again. x.comΒ
Sustained high energy prices strain US farming, logistics, manufacturing and consumers, so crude oil should fall dramatically from its elevated level. Middle East and Russia tensions are lifting WTI, shown near $103, while Trump will likely step in at some point to reduce uncertainty. x.comΒ x.comΒ
Crude oil is heading toward $100 as US-Iran tensions escalate. Higher oil and higher yields both pressure stocks, and a low VIX means nobody is paying for protection, not that risk is low. x.comΒ
Crude oil is headed to $100 a barrel as Iran signals lasting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the strait will not return to pre-war conditions, warning that where Iran does not sell oil, no one will sell oil. x.comΒ x.comΒ
Crude oil faces near-term pressure as Trump said US-Iran talks were productive and pledged no strikes before the November 3 elections; Brent fell to $103.36. Supply risks persist, however, with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. x.comΒ
Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.comΒ
