Simjo
Fundamental Equity Analyst, Geopolitics
Micron and SanDisk are a skip: DDR4 prices rising 50% quarter on quarter is already consensus, and both stocks have run on it. The surprise sits in legacy DRAM makers Nanya and Winbond, which are hard to access. The more promising gap is on the optical receive side, in photodiodes, InP substrates and germanium supply, rather than in crowded EMLs and switch optics. x.com
Micron, SK hynix and Samsung just won a memory price negotiation before it started, as Washington removed Apple's leverage. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the administration opposes Apple buying from Chinese memory makers CXMT and YMTC. Apple was never realistically putting Chinese DRAM in iPhones at scale; it was a bargaining chip against Samsung and SK hynix as contracts reprice into an AI-driven spike. Apple now negotiates with no credible alternative supplier. x.com
Nanya Technology is in trouble now that Micron plans to quadruple DDR4 production at its Manassas facility using 1a technology, as CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told Bloomberg. That added legacy DRAM capacity hits Nanya's core market directly. x.com x.com
Micron beating earnings with accelerating revenue growth is the most bullish possible signal for the Roundhill Memory ETF. x.com
Rising memory contract prices strengthen the case for memory stocks still far below their highs. JPMorgan forecasts Q4 DRAM prices up 13% and NAND up 18%; Micron is 28% below its 52-week high, Seagate 44%, Sandisk 47% and Western Digital 55%. x.com
Buying the DRAM dip looks too risky now because CXMT's ambitious next-generation 4F plan and SK hynix's aggressive production expansion raise supply concerns for memory stocks such as Micron, SK hynix and Samsung. CXMT is unlikely to become a serious competitive threat, but it could still weigh on storage-stock sentiment. x.com x.com
SK hynix's strong pricing and secured capacity could push memory stocks higher. Per Wall St Engine, its Q3 DRAM ASP rose by a high-20s percentage quarter over quarter, while long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027-28 capacity. Those figures support the memory upcycle. x.com
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.com
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.com
The memory sector is finished because China's CXMT has advanced a 4F² DRAM architecture that could greatly increase density. Micron, SanDisk and other memory-stock holders will bleed for months; China will lead AI moving forward, and those stocks are already paying the price. x.com
Sandisk's fast-growing data-center revenue strengthens its case among memory names with upside. Data-center revenue rose 61% quarter over quarter; revenue of $11.03B, adjusted EPS of $49.51 and adjusted gross margin of 85.1% all exceeded estimates. For upside among Micron, Sandisk and Kioxia, Micron ranks first, then Sandisk, then Kioxia, until further guidance. x.com x.com
Either memory ETF is a reasonable way to own memory, with a preference for Tema's DISK and its slightly higher NAND weighting through Kioxia and Sandisk. DISK, built with SemiAnalysis, is far more diversified, while DRAM holds over 75% in Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung. DISK is too light on Micron, and DRAM too light on Sandisk. Offhand, NAND prices grew faster than DRAM for the first time in Q2. x.com x.com
