Nokia stands to benefit from optical networking demand: Ciena's demand commentary at its investor forum reads positively for Nokia. Rosenblatt sees clear upside for Ciena following the event. x.com
M&M Lion Fund
Small-Fund Portfolio Manager Since 2023, IE Business School & Javeriana Background
Telecom fiber providers Ciena and Nokia stand to benefit because AI will need far more data-center interconnect, as another investor's post illustrated. x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Repeat orders and larger new-customer orders are driving SmartOptics' growth. Q3 revenue rose 80% and EBIT 340%, with strong cash flow. Ciena and Nokia are busy serving hyperscalers; SmartOptics should scoop up all other smaller customers. Its 300M revenue target by 2030 suggests more growth. x.com
Nokia is well positioned for data centers' shift from copper to optics because it makes and packages indium phosphide optical chips in-house, and could eventually double. Through Infinera it owns scarce InP fab capacity, is expanding San Jose 20-fold and buying NXP's Chandler campus, and grew US photonic packaging tenfold, avoiding Coherent or Lumentum markups. Q2 AI and cloud sales rose 105% on EUR 2.8B of orders, with backlog at 6.3x quarterly segment revenue. Curbs on Chinese optics help. … Show more
Nokia does not deserve the roughly 50x multiples of optical pure plays like Ciena and Coherent, because it still carries large, shrinking legacy businesses in wireless, PON and routing. This rebuts Citron Research's case that comparisons with those peers make Nokia a $20 stock. x.com
Nokia's real draw is indium phosphide and data center interconnect, not AI-RAN, which is pure hype. It already won Google's DCI deal because Ciena is out of capacity, and it should secure more deals from other cloud providers, possibly Amazon. x.com
Nokia is becoming a credible Western AI infrastructure pick, though only its Network Infrastructure half. The Infinera deal added in-house photonic chip fabs and hyperscaler access, Nvidia's $1B stake brings AI-RAN co-design, and the segment grew 23% in FY25 with EUR2.4B of AI and cloud orders. Licensing at near-100% gross margin and EUR4.9B of net cash add support, while Mobile Networks is a commoditizing anchor. Risks: AI capex peaking before Nokia wins optical share, and synergy slippage. … Show more
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia could be a huge beneficiary of Starlink's possible US carrier network because it is one of only two radio suppliers for cell sites, alongside Ericsson, and existing carriers would have to spend more to compete. SpaceX is seeking access to 80,000 sites, according to the author. Verizon's CEO estimates a full buildout would take at least four to six years and 65,000-80,000 sites; either way, the infrastructure demand looks bullish for Nokia. x.com x.com x.com