Schulz Duggan
AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing
Vishay is a bet on the whole passive and discrete component cycle tightening, and its order books look better than its chart, 52% off its June peak. Five of six segments booked orders above 1.3 times shipments, and capacitor revenue rose 26.7% on volume and pricing. It is a weak direct play on Morgan Stanley's 166% jump in MLCC content per Vera Rubin rack, as its MLCCs skew to high-voltage and auto parts. MOSFETs drag; if book-to-bill falls toward 1, June was the cycle peak. x.comÂ
Vishay's 48V AI buildout revenue is now hitting its results. Its Q1 2026 report was a significant beat on both revenue and earnings, sending the stock up 9.1% premarket to $36.69. x.comÂ
Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Yageo and TDK look priced too hot even though MLCC fundamentals are booming. Taiyo Yuden cautioned that with 30-week lead times, ODMs are buffering inventory and part of the order book is panic buying. Samsung Electro-Mechanics' CFO said low-to-mid tier margins could face pressure in 18-24 months as Chinese rivals expand. Morgan Stanley and Citi analysts warned that at forward P/Es above 40x, any late-2026 capex slowdown could hit multiples hard. … Show more
Vishay Intertechnology combines a huge base breakout with two powerful themes, power semiconductors and robotics, where it is a hidden supplier. The stock broke out of and successfully retested its 26-year base, rising 12% in a day, and it is approaching its dot-com and 2008 highs. x.comÂ
Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Taiyo Yuden benefit from a narrow shortage of the high-capacitance, low-inductance MLCCs AI accelerators need, even as commodity capacitor pricing stays soft. MLCC content per rack rises from about $1,530 in GB300 to $4,320 in VR200. Taiyo Yuden's book-to-bill is about 1.7x, Murata's high-end utilization about 95%, and SEMCO raised prices 30%. Murata has the strongest position, SEMCO the clearest earnings conversion, Taiyo Yuden the cleanest exposure. x.com … Show more
Vicor stands to capture demand for high-density power delivery as power conversion moves closer to the AI processor, with royalties as early optional upside. On September 30 Vicor raised Q3 growth guidance from over 20% to over 30% because VPD royalties beat expectations, as Delta, Eaton, EPC and others showed 800VDC systems and converters with fewer conversion stages. Vicor expects to finish modernizing FAB1 by year-end, expanding capacity for high-density modules, with FAB2 to follow. x.comÂ
Magnachip's Q1 showed solid progress that still lost out to overheated sentiment, confirming the warning that merely meeting expectations wouldn't sustain April's momentum. Gross margin rose to 15.6% from 9.3%, the top of guidance, and inventory days fell to 77, suggesting genuine server MOSFET demand. But planned Fab 3 downtime in the second half and conservative Q2 guidance limit near-term growth. With $94.6M of cash against a $135M valuation, it must win AI-server power before the cash thins. … Show more
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is emerging as an AI infrastructure titan as advanced substrates become the bottleneck for AI scaling. Per @jukan05, it will supply FC-BGA substrates for Broadcom's most advanced AI accelerators from the second half, joining NVIDIA, Google, Amazon and Apple. With Ibiden and Shinko at full capacity, it is the only tier-1 player with the capex to scale large-area substrates. AI servers also need 3-4x more MLCCs, where Samsung and Murata own the IP and earn premium margin. … Show more
Power delivery is the least crowded way to own AI capex, as capacitance moves onto the chip package. AI chips run at about 1V while drawing 800W to over 1kW, with current spiking from 100A to 900A instantly, too fast for distant MLCCs. AP Memory, the purest silicon capacitor play, posted record Q2 revenue up 78% with SiCap up 273% to 27% of sales, and one design needs nearly 100 caps per substrate with visibility into 2028. Samsung Electro-Mechanics signed a $1B SiCap supply contract. x.comÂ
Magnachip is priced as a dying legacy analog name while it rebuilds around power semiconductors for AI data centers. It exited display chips and plans 55 product launches in 2026 after 55 in 2025, with new-generation products rising from about 2% of revenue to 10% by Q4. At roughly 1x sales with $94.6M of cash against $42.3M of debt, cash covers much downside. It is unprofitable with 15.6% gross margins, yet a 20% jump on a trade show slot for AI-server MOSFETs shows how little is priced in. … Show more
onsemi's inventory correction is ending while its AI data center business surges, yet the stock is about 46% below its June 3 high. Distribution inventory fell to 10.1 weeks, fab utilization rose to 83% and lead times stretched from 27 to 32 weeks. The company expects AI data center revenue to more than double in 2026, and management targets another doubling in 2027. onsemi says power content per AI rack can rise from about $15,000 to roughly $115,000 as racks move to high-voltage designs. x.com … Show more
