Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's CEO describing weaker Google referrals makes its reliance on third-party traffic appear to be a valid moat concern. He said people still want Reddit, but Google is not sending them there as it used to. This appears to bear out the concern raised a year ago, though avoiding the stock could still miss upside. x.com 

Reddit's user slowdown may matter less to revenue than the selloff implies because the weakness is among logged-out users, who generate only 20% of revenue. Logged-in users kept growing when logged-out users declined in 2022; requiring sign-ins could help, though the latest report was bad and the new-user funnel remains a risk. Reddit already monetizes better than Pinterest and has more cash to promote app logins. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's biggest route for new users is closing as Google AI Mode answers queries without sending readers to Reddit. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman says Google still crawls the site but AI Mode sends it no traffic. US user growth is down to 6%; Huffman's plan for people to come directly to Reddit relies on a change in habits unlikely to happen. x.com 

Reddit's management has nearly lost confidence, leaving little reason for optimism in a selective market. Its earnings call may have been among the year's worst, and it probably has a long way to go before returning near its highs. x.com 

Reddit's projected free cash flow makes the selloff look overdone: its $15.6B enterprise value is 8.8 times expected $1.78B next-year FCF, an 11.4% yield. US user growth remains a problem, but an Anthropic settlement or OpenAI or Google deal could add upside; high short interest could amplify a turnaround. Reddit intends to restrict logged-out access, which would block Google's scraping. x.com  x.com 

Reddit looks like a possible AI loser as Google's AI search changes threaten traffic referrals. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman says AI Overviews and AI Mode push everyone down the search page without driving traffic back; he also believes Reddit's machine-translated content may rank lower outside the U.S. x.com 

Google's AI Mode no longer drives traffic to Reddit, weakening its distribution. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said Google still crawls Reddit heavily but no longer sends it the traffic it once did, and Reddit cannot count on that traffic returning. x.com 

The market is wrong to punish Reddit over Q2 US daily-user softness and choppy search referrals, because ad revenue growth of 64% is the better gauge of execution. US daily uniques fell 300,000 sequentially, but weekly uniques rose 700,000, and Q2 is seasonally weak; such pullbacks have happened six times in six years, half in Q2. Ad growth reflects higher engagement and better pricing. User counts show only visit frequency, not engagement or ad impressions, so revenue and ARPU matter most. … Show more

Reddit's stock is unlikely to rerate until it shows cleaner US daily user growth and less reliance on volatile search referrals, despite a strong financial engine. US DAUq grew only 6% versus 28% internationally, logged-in growth was just 7%, and management called search traffic volatile. The 100M US DAU goal looks further away, AI licensing showed no progress with other revenue up 24% to $43M, and the $860-870M Q3 revenue guide did not address user concerns. x.com