Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is breaking into AI packaging by supplying silicon capacitors for Intel's EMIB, which is why the stock is surging. TSMC sourced silicon capacitors in-house, shutting outsiders out, but Intel must buy them. SEMCO is the only company with both silicon capacitor and substrate businesses, the top-value EMIB part, so it can supply both turnkey with strong bargaining power. It won a contract over $1B versus a few million dollars of such revenue last year. x.comÂ
Samsung Electro-Mechanics has reportedly notified distributors of an MLCC price increase, per Korean sell-side sources, likely similar to Taiyo Yuden's 6-13% hike, with Murata also expected to follow. Murata's statement that it will stop allocating more capacity to IT applications should ease oversupply in IT-related MLCCs, limiting further downside pressure on prices. x.comÂ
High-end ABF substrates are the next AI hardware bottleneck, giving Samsung Electro-Mechanics a large opportunity, per Meritz Securities. As AI accelerators scale, package areas are growing over 5x and pin counts up to 100x, while Ajinomoto, with over 90% of raw film supply, is maxed out and Ibiden runs at full capacity. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is rapidly expanding FC-BGA capacity to capture unallocated GPU demand, and Nvidia's 2028 Feynman chips may need 3-5x the substrate of 2026 designs. … Show more
Power delivery is the least crowded way to own AI capex, as capacitance moves onto the chip package. AI chips run at about 1V while drawing 800W to over 1kW, with current spiking from 100A to 900A instantly, too fast for distant MLCCs. AP Memory, the purest silicon capacitor play, posted record Q2 revenue up 78% with SiCap up 273% to 27% of sales, and one design needs nearly 100 caps per substrate with visibility into 2028. Samsung Electro-Mechanics signed a $1B SiCap supply contract. x.comÂ
Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Yageo and TDK look priced too hot even though MLCC fundamentals are booming. Taiyo Yuden cautioned that with 30-week lead times, ODMs are buffering inventory and part of the order book is panic buying. Samsung Electro-Mechanics' CFO said low-to-mid tier margins could face pressure in 18-24 months as Chinese rivals expand. Morgan Stanley and Citi analysts warned that at forward P/Es above 40x, any late-2026 capex slowdown could hit multiples hard. … Show more
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is emerging as an AI infrastructure titan as advanced substrates become the bottleneck for AI scaling. Per @jukan05, it will supply FC-BGA substrates for Broadcom's most advanced AI accelerators from the second half, joining NVIDIA, Google, Amazon and Apple. With Ibiden and Shinko at full capacity, it is the only tier-1 player with the capex to scale large-area substrates. AI servers also need 3-4x more MLCCs, where Samsung and Murata own the IP and earn premium margin. … Show more
Samsung Electro-Mechanics has booming profits from MLCCs and FCBGA substrates, backed by huge demand through long-term agreements with hyperscalers. It may be preferable to Samsung Electronics right now, since there are better pure-play memory names than Samsung Electronics. x.comÂ
Glass-core substrate suppliers such as Corning, LPKF, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, SKC and AGC remain early, as the sector is still some way from shipping real volume. Part 4 of @GyujinAAIG's glass research shows how far each group is, mapping substrate makers on a one-to-ten readiness scale and chip designers on a separate one-to-fourteen scale. x.comÂ
Nvidia's co-investment supports Samsung Electro-Mechanics' substrate expansion because it expects capacity to be tight when it needs supply. Samsung Electro-Mechanics says dedicated compute and switch substrate supply to Nvidia starts this year, with double-digit annual volume growth; by 2028 Nvidia orders should take a substantial share of its package-substrate capacity. Global customers fund part of its 6.78 trillion won expansion, but new Sejong output starts in September 2028. x.comÂ
Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Taiyo Yuden benefit from a narrow shortage of the high-capacitance, low-inductance MLCCs AI accelerators need, even as commodity capacitor pricing stays soft. MLCC content per rack rises from about $1,530 in GB300 to $4,320 in VR200. Taiyo Yuden's book-to-bill is about 1.7x, Murata's high-end utilization about 95%, and SEMCO raised prices 30%. Murata has the strongest position, SEMCO the clearest earnings conversion, Taiyo Yuden the cleanest exposure. x.com … Show more
Advanced packaging is where the new Moore's law lies, and Intel's EMIB is becoming a major business. Per Digitimes, cited by @pequityresearch, the first TPU using EMIB has met yield standards, making it significantly more likely that future TPU generations keep using it. A quoted assessment calls EMIB a multi-billion-dollar-per-customer business with 30% operating margins and phenomenal ROIC, now headed by SK hynix's former CEO. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's EMIB packaging is ramping as advanced packaging becomes the next chokepoint after HBM. EMIB substrate yields reportedly rose from ~30% in 2Q26 to ~45%, with targets of 50% by 4Q26 and 60% by 1Q27. Google is expected to adopt EMIB-T in 2027 and AWS is testing it. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says Intel has to prepay substrate suppliers to secure capacity. CoWoS capacity is set to grow about 20x from 2023 to 370k wpm by 2028, more than TSMC can carry alone. x.comÂ
