Markos
Founder of Asset Alliance Investment Group
Glass-core substrate suppliers such as Corning, LPKF, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, SKC and AGC remain early, as the sector is still some way from shipping real volume. Part 4 of @GyujinAAIG's glass research shows how far each group is, mapping substrate makers on a one-to-ten readiness scale and chip designers on a separate one-to-fourteen scale. x.com
In glass core substrates, value lies downstream in unsolved steps like plating, singulation and micro-crack inspection, while major established suppliers already have a lot priced in. Raw glass from Corning and AGC is mature and concentrated, not where the alpha is, and LPKF's microvia drilling is the most mature step. Samsung Electro-Mechanics and SKC's Absolics outsource key steps to processors that often hold deeper know-how. Ajinomoto, as Japan owns build-up film, is the safest exposure. x.com
IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com … Show more
LPKF Laser & Electronics and Schmid Group shares should deflate fast because glass-core substrates are not expected to be adopted until 2030, per @AtlasShrug1 citing @pequityresearch, a long wait for any ramp. x.com
LPKF's volume ramp likely tracks glass-core substrate mass-production timelines, which have just slipped. Samsung Electro-Mechanics pushed its start to 2028 from H2 2027 after customer reliability evaluations of prototypes bottlenecked, and SKC's Absolics moved to H1 2027 from H2 2026, per TrendForce. Timeline shifts aren't always good news, but the shift to glass-core substrates still feels imminent. x.com
Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Yageo and TDK look priced too hot even though MLCC fundamentals are booming. Taiyo Yuden cautioned that with 30-week lead times, ODMs are buffering inventory and part of the order book is panic buying. Samsung Electro-Mechanics' CFO said low-to-mid tier margins could face pressure in 18-24 months as Chinese rivals expand. Morgan Stanley and Citi analysts warned that at forward P/Es above 40x, any late-2026 capex slowdown could hit multiples hard. … Show more
LPKF's management credibility is the biggest concern after years of overpromising. It missed 2024 and 2025 guidance and is on track to miss 2026, needing H2 revenue of twice its €34.7 million backlog. Expected Q2 production orders for LIDE systems did not arrive and were pushed to H2, and its €1.7 billion advanced-packaging TAM assumes everyone switches fully to glass in 2030. Its technology is great and it leads in TGV, but glass substrates need a couple more years to penetrate meaningfully. … Show more
High-end ABF substrates are the next AI hardware bottleneck, giving Samsung Electro-Mechanics a large opportunity, per Meritz Securities. As AI accelerators scale, package areas are growing over 5x and pin counts up to 100x, while Ajinomoto, with over 90% of raw film supply, is maxed out and Ibiden runs at full capacity. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is rapidly expanding FC-BGA capacity to capture unallocated GPU demand, and Nvidia's 2028 Feynman chips may need 3-5x the substrate of 2026 designs. … Show more
Ajinomoto, Nittobo, Ibiden and AT&S sit in an ABF substrate supply chain consolidated into near-monopolies, where the AI chip bottleneck keeps moving. Nvidia, Intel and AMD are prepaying for suppliers' factories, with Ibiden receiving over 90 billion yen; companies that size do not prepay unless out of options. Ajinomoto holds over 95% of the substrate film market, and Apple, Nvidia and Google are chasing Nittobo's glass fabric. A capex cycle ending in overcapacity is the risk. x.com x.com
United Microelectronics and ABF substrate suppliers look more attractive as advanced packaging becomes heavily constrained and supply additions look gloomy. Per industry insiders, a shortage of T-Glass fiberglass cloth has stretched delivery times for high-grade ABF substrates from 12-18 weeks to over 20 weeks. Analysts expect ABF substrate prices to rise 10-15% quarter over quarter, with tight supply lasting until 2027. x.com
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is emerging as an AI infrastructure titan as advanced substrates become the bottleneck for AI scaling. Per @jukan05, it will supply FC-BGA substrates for Broadcom's most advanced AI accelerators from the second half, joining NVIDIA, Google, Amazon and Apple. With Ibiden and Shinko at full capacity, it is the only tier-1 player with the capex to scale large-area substrates. AI servers also need 3-4x more MLCCs, where Samsung and Murata own the IP and earn premium margin. … Show more
Shin-Etsu Chemical is shifting from a chemical conglomerate to a chip-supply bottleneck, owning lithography and chemistry patents essential to the glass-substrate era. In 1,000W+ AI data centers glass is already required, as organic substrates warp and crack under the heat of Nvidia's Rubin systems. Intel and Samsung have moved pilot lines into volume production, with Shin-Etsu supplying bonding chemistry and masks. Cyclical PVC cash funds its electronics push, supporting a re-rating. x.com … Show more
