SuperLuckeee
Day & Swing Trader, Options/Futures & Credit Spreads
Intel's earnings set up a squeeze toward $110 or higher. A cited gamma-squeeze screen called Intel's Q2 report the most genuine setup, with put premiums bid up after a roughly 13% one-week drop in the chip selloff, so a beat could force put unwinds and a call chase. Its triggers are the foundry roadmap, the Google chip deal and whether Q1's margin recovery holds into the second half. x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for perfection into its Q2 print after a 278% run, with guidance pointing to sequential declines. It guided to about $13.8-14.8 billion of revenue, 39% margin and $0.20 EPS, and trades near 147x forward earnings; 31 of 48 analysts rate it Hold. Government, NVIDIA ($5 billion) and SoftBank ($2 billion) backing is a floor, not a launchpad. Foundry losses are the swing factor. x.comÂ
Intel's fading options activity at $70 and $80, alongside a strong $100 node, improves its near-term setup. The stock bounced at its 200-day average alongside SMH and SOXX, supporting a $98-100 target this week; $110 calls are further out and $130 calls are for November-December. Dealers seem to have moved their hedges, though $80 may still come after October 30 earnings. The share target remains $140. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel is being bought on the dip by institutions loading up, and could reach all-time highs soon. x.comÂ
Intel drew heavy bullish options flow and sentiment, and the $97.50 level, the strongest node on the options heatmap, has acted as support. The stock bounced cleanly from $97.50, and holding that level is the key to more upside. Flagged flow orders often see 30-50% drawdowns before moving the right way. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel's rally is gamma-squeeze and momentum froth, not fundamentals, with its market cap jumping from $200 billion to $500 billion in a month without much change in the business. EPS won't even reach $1-1.5 this year, after $0.29 in Q1 and $0.20 guided for Q2, so it looks overvalued. It may take 18 months for the froth to fade and the stock to trade at reality. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intel has potential for a move higher as a likely sympathy play on Nvidia's earnings, backed by heavy buying and call flow. It posted its first daily closes above the 50-day average since early July, an EMA crossover is possible, and huge buy volume shows on the weekly chart. A full reclaim of the weekly 9 average would confirm the springboard setup; the call may be early. x.com x.comÂ
Keybanc's reported supply-chain indications of foundry commitments make an Intel customer-win announcement on the upcoming earnings call seem possible. Those indications name Broadcom for networking switches and Google for server CPUs. Intel raised capital after management said exceptional success might require more investment. This is a trading view with discipline taking precedence over conviction. x.comÂ
Intel's beat-and-raise does not justify its bloated valuation. Even if Intel someday earned $5 a share, its current market cap would still put it at about 100 times earnings. x.com x.comÂ
Intel's chart points to a pending breakout, with its stochastic about as low as it can get and a clean test of the key support-resistance flip inside a pennant or flag pattern. Heavy call flow today, all calls in the last 20 minutes, is a good sign after Friday. x.com x.comÂ
