Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com  x.com 

Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com  x.com 

Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.com 

Microsoft's record long-term institutional accumulation was the real signal: the largest monthly, weekly and daily volumes ever built up right at the bottom, and the expected short-term flush never came, not even a 10% decline. Short-term bearish speculation was a waste of time. x.com  x.com 

Microsoft is probably the most entrenched software name in the market, making it the lower-risk way to bet against widespread bearishness on software. It should rebound, though the timing is unclear and beside the point; fundamentals several years out should be great. x.com 

Microsoft is not cheap even after a 20% drop: it fails a strict 20% margin-of-safety valuation hurdle. x.com 

Microsoft remains in an uptrend, so a pullback from its $490-510 resistance zone near all-time highs would be a normal correction, not a reversal. Near-month calls are seeing heavy buying with volume above open interest, showing institutions are still bullish. Near term, volume is shrinking and hourly and four-hour RSI show bearish divergence, so chasing is not advised; holding the four-hour 21 EMA would mark a dip worth buying, while a break with weakening options flow would be a warning. x.com 

Microsoft at $382 is a great deal to tuck away for 10+ years, even if it is not the low. Stocks popular on X and heavily held by retail would be oversold even more in a 2022-style selloff, so Microsoft can also serve as a source of funds to buy them then. x.com  x.com 

Microsoft is a secular loser trading at a high multiple, a profile that struggles in this market. It finished red on a day the Dow rose over 1,000 points. x.com 

Security software is arguably more of an AI bubble than semiconductors. Firms are bid up to nosebleed multiples on moderate AI-related revenue acceleration while facing medium- to long-term risks from Microsoft, Google and the AI labs and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Their forward P/Es rest on non-GAAP earnings that exclude large stock compensation. A reversal could come from results missing high buy-side bars, security share gains by Microsoft or Google, or AI lab security launches. x.com  … Show more