David Hunter
Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors
Silver miners are far behind silver and will outperform the metal as it moves up; they are the most undervalued asset on this macro view. Even with silver forecast to nearly triple in 2026, miners could do better than that, though not necessarily by year-end. Silver likely tops this year but doesn't have to, and the existing price targets stand unchanged. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Domestic precious-metal miners are favored, because as gold moves into its next leg up, things will get rough in some places and some governments will get greedy. @CandidMacro adds energy supply issues at mines in Mali and probably Australia. Favorites are Coeur Mining, Hecla Mining, Endeavour Silver, Blackrock Silver and FGOVF. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold and silver are setting up for a metals mania, with the bottom already put in back in July. Gold shows a bullish divergence and an engulfing candle poking into a real breakout, and markets will soon see a 25bps dovish hike as no different from holding rates. Silver has an inverse head-and-shoulders attempting a fresh breakout and is about to outpace the dollar for the first time since last year; the last such rotation saw silver surge 190%. The bear case is $80/oz. x.com x.comÂ
Gold miners have further to fall because gold is acting as just another risk asset. Rising oil, rising yields and a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, silver and the precious-metal miners. x.com x.comÂ
Silver can stabilize around its previous cycle all-time high, but the long-term bull case is limited because its scarcity is nowhere near that of gold or bitcoin. x.comÂ
Silver's bearish signal is the huge number of likes on Rashad Hajiyev's $200 call, pointing instead to $20 over the next three years. The final low is due in late 2029 to early 2030 under the dominant seven-year cycle, whose lows came in 2001, 2008, 2015 and 2022; the 2020 Covid low was an anomaly, not a four-year cycle. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver is set up for a strong run in precious metals into the second half, because the SLV risk reversal has tilted toward puts while silver sits back at its support range, a credible setup. x.comÂ
Gold royalty and streaming companies remain worth adding even with gold far above $3,200-3,700, because their valuations are low versus history and they can still generate alpha even if gold is unexciting over 3-5 years. Silver and rising industrial demand add support. Unlike miners, which are boom-bust, they earn from mines without operating them. Buying Wheaton Precious Metals, Royal Gold, Osisko and Franco-Nevada is on hold after gold's recent jump. x.comÂ
Silver, gold, Micron and NVIDIA could run higher over the next 5-7 months as money rotates out of the dollar into large assets, if the rates thesis plays out. That rotation should create major liquidity for big names that have been basing in recent months, and people underestimate how quickly large market caps can move. Micron and NVIDIA may be setting up to rally together, and once they break out they can carry semiconductors single-handedly. x.com x.comÂ
Gold, silver and bitcoin are in a cyclical downturn driven by a rallying dollar, even though the secular debasement trade remains on. The dollar index hit a 13-month high, tightening everything priced in dollars and unwinding crowded positions: gold is under $4,000, off about 25%, silver is down about 40% and bitcoin is below $60,000. Over decades fiat erodes, driven by fiscal dominance rather than the Fed's balance sheet, so size for the cycle and position for the secular trend. x.com x.com … Show more
