Proposed FCC rules to more than double SCS spectrum are wildly bullish for AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, the only two SCS license holders. AST trades below the value of its Ligado rights; its agreed deal has almost no chance of FCC blockage despite objections. AST could return to its highs sooner rather than later if the November 9 call clarifies production and Blue Origin keeps moving New Glenn toward the pad. New Glenn is the value unlock. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX can scale Starlink faster than fiber because each cheaper launch adds capacity across countries without digging trenches or waiting for permits. Starlink subscribers grew from about 4.4 million to 13.6 million in under two years, including 1.6 million in one quarter; AT&T fiber connections grew about 36% over the chart's period. Beams limit growth in dense cities, though SpaceX says V3 satellites add much more capacity per launch. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX remains unattractive: its reported $8 billion spectrum deal covers only a tiny fraction of what a nationwide wireless network would require, even with expensive satellites that last just five years. x.com 

SpaceX has a path to $170 by October 16 after agreeing to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink Mobile's indoor coverage. The deal still needs FCC approval, and terms were not disclosed. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's satellite network should let Starlink Mobile provide equivalent cellular service with far less terrestrial infrastructure than other carriers. Acquiring some cell towers therefore makes sense. StockSavvyShay says SpaceX is in talks to secure at least 80,000 US cell sites. x.com 

SpaceX's effort to make satellite-only coverage count toward buildout requirements casts doubt on its terrestrial-network pitch. It is spending considerable energy seeking that option while saying it plans to build a terrestrial network. x.com 

SpaceX is moving toward a launch monopoly as ULA loses urgent national-security missions. Per @cb_doge, the Space Force shifted six launches to SpaceX to keep them on schedule. SpaceX is also negotiating leases with Crown Castle and other tower firms for at least 80,000 sites, a potentially multibillion-dollar step toward becoming the fourth nationwide US mobile carrier. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX looks like a long-term opportunity because government contracts, Starlink growth and its own launch infrastructure give it meaningful demand. In May it won a $4.16 billion Space Force agreement to develop satellites that track airborne threats, on top of a national security launch contract worth nearly $6 billion; SpaceX still has to deliver. Starlink connectivity revenue grew about 66% in the second quarter, and SpaceX's reusable rockets put those satellites in orbit. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's growing connectivity profit improves its business case, but spending still leaves self-funded growth unproven. Starlink users rose from 12m to 13.6m and ARPU from $66 to $69; connectivity earned $2.4B of $2.8B operating profit. The $4.4B net profit includes non-operating and tax gains, while AI's operating margin is about 5.7%. Quarterly capex exceeded revenue at $19.6B, with $35-40B planned for Q4. Valuation still requires evidence of cash returns. x.com 

The FCC's approval of faster satellite licensing signals that the US now treats space as a strategic industry to grow rather than regulate, benefiting SpaceX most directly and, longer term, Rocket Lab. Starlink keeps adding thousands of satellites, so quicker approvals could speed capacity and new-country entry. Rocket Lab's satellite, SDA, Golden Dome and national-security work should benefit over time. How much approvals shorten, and any near-term gain for Rocket Lab, remain unconfirmed. x.com