Dr. Stoxx
Stock Trader & Author, Oxford DPhil, Trading Education
Gold and silver face a perfect storm if rates, oil and the dollar index are peaking while tension over Iran drags on. Central banks are also piling into gold for the first time in maybe a year. Those tailwinds could shift at any time, but there is a good chance they won't for a while, giving a good chance of another run like last year's, with a 500 target. x.comÂ
Institutions are clearly building a position in gold around $430 in the gold ETF. It just posted its largest buy volume since the March low, about $27B, and is pulling back to the area it was earlier sold from inefficiently, while intraday buyers keep absorbing the drop. Gold is now green on the year and holding its October 2025 range. x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold has finished building a base and its trend remains strong, with a next target of $4,500. It has reclaimed its key moving averages and broken back above an important level, and heavy put selling in options shows solid support below. August to early September is usually a seasonally strong stretch. A break above $4,500 would open $5,000; failing that, gold would likely pull back to its 21-day EMA and consolidate. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is worth owning because of unstable, inconsistent central bank policy, currency depreciation and a lack of fiscal discipline from both parties in Washington. The predictable pressure on precious metals from higher rates and fears of a Fed hike tomorrow is likely discounted or close to it, so the risk/reward is attractive despite a technical breakdown evident for weeks. Like any commodity whose intrinsic value is hard to calculate, gold will stay volatile on both the downside and upside. … Show more
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold and silver may benefit if yields ease a little further from their local high for a while longer. The FOMC meeting and minutes could be good for both. x.comÂ
Gold wins when policymakers pin yields and let inflation run, because real assets gain while cash loses. Gold is at all-time highs and bitcoin has drawn heavy inflows almost daily since Aug. 5 as institutions front-run the government's promise to prop up the market. Stanley Druckenmiller warns in the WSJ that this price management does not fix the debt, only decides who pays, and the bill lands on cash holders. Waiting means buying at higher prices what institutions already own. x.com x.comÂ
Gold looks likely to fill the gap below and test $366-$368 over the next two weeks before a solid bounce, with options heatmaps lining up with the chart. A flush into the $360s would be a buying opportunity rather than a reason to short. x.comÂ
Gold looks to be starting a new uptrend after resetting, though it may need a bit more time, because the debasement trade is alive and well. Aggressive FX intervention and signals of 'whatever it takes' bond market management from Treasury Secretary Bessent support it, and there are valid worries these are band-aid fixes. x.comÂ