GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
SKC is the pure lead in glass substrates, with its Absolics unit due in the second half of 2026 as first mover. Applied Materials gets equipment revenue first, but SKC captures the margin at the substrate layer, the actual choke point. Intel's reported 2030 timeline is irrelevant to the near-term trade. Per TrendForce timelines cited by @aleabitoreddit, Absolics serves AMD customers, with Samsung Electro-Mechanics following in the second half of 2027. x.com
SKC's glass substrate timeline has moved up, as it plans to accelerate mass production of glass substrates for US clients by the end of this year, ahead of its original plan. That makes glass core substrate players, SKC among them, a heavy beneficiary of earlier adoption. x.com
MEC could still double to about a $2B market cap by 2027 if its CZ Series chemical becomes the undisputed requirement for the glass substrates that companies such as Intel and Samsung are moving toward for 2028-2030. That would scale revenue to about $250-300M. x.com
Glass-core substrate suppliers such as Corning, LPKF, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, SKC and AGC remain early, as the sector is still some way from shipping real volume. Part 4 of @GyujinAAIG's glass research shows how far each group is, mapping substrate makers on a one-to-ten readiness scale and chip designers on a separate one-to-fourteen scale. x.com
LPKF Laser & Electronics, the leader in through-glass vias, has meaningful upside as Intel's EMIB and glass-substrate manufacturing pick up, though it is speculative for now. Its technology is good, but it faces competitors such as DR Laser and Corning. Sizing up needs follow-through from Intel and the rest of the industry, clarity on how supply chains shape out, and a more convincing ramp and go-to-market. x.com
Intel's EMIB packaging is ramping as advanced packaging becomes the next chokepoint after HBM. EMIB substrate yields reportedly rose from ~30% in 2Q26 to ~45%, with targets of 50% by 4Q26 and 60% by 1Q27. Google is expected to adopt EMIB-T in 2027 and AWS is testing it. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says Intel has to prepay substrate suppliers to secure capacity. CoWoS capacity is set to grow about 20x from 2023 to 370k wpm by 2028, more than TSMC can carry alone. x.com
LPKF's volume ramp likely tracks glass-core substrate mass-production timelines, which have just slipped. Samsung Electro-Mechanics pushed its start to 2028 from H2 2027 after customer reliability evaluations of prototypes bottlenecked, and SKC's Absolics moved to H1 2027 from H2 2026, per TrendForce. Timeline shifts aren't always good news, but the shift to glass-core substrates still feels imminent. x.com
Reported talks between SK hynix and Intel to make memory chips in the US are another strong data point for Intel Foundry, though nothing is signed. After multiple leaks of SK hynix looking at EMIB, big players are clearly treating Intel as a real alternative for advanced packaging. A deal would move EMIB from a backup option to core AI infrastructure, offloading packaging bottlenecks to US soil while undercutting TSMC on cost. Volume is not expected before 2027 or 2028. x.com
LPKF Laser is a bottleneck supplier for glass substrates, the next-generation AI packaging material Intel, Samsung and TSMC are piloting. Glass cracks when drilled, and LPKF's LIDE is one of very few processes that structure glass at production scale without cracking, so no glass ecosystem gets built without a tool like it. Management says the question is now when the ramp begins, not whether. Besi trades at 77x EBITDA on advanced packaging; upstream names trade at fractions of that. x.com
Ajinomoto, Nittobo, Ibiden and AT&S sit in an ABF substrate supply chain consolidated into near-monopolies, where the AI chip bottleneck keeps moving. Nvidia, Intel and AMD are prepaying for suppliers' factories, with Ibiden receiving over 90 billion yen; companies that size do not prepay unless out of options. Ajinomoto holds over 95% of the substrate film market, and Apple, Nvidia and Google are chasing Nittobo's glass fabric. A capex cycle ending in overcapacity is the risk. x.com x.com
Advanced packaging is where the new Moore's law lies, and Intel's EMIB is becoming a major business. Per Digitimes, cited by @pequityresearch, the first TPU using EMIB has met yield standards, making it significantly more likely that future TPU generations keep using it. A quoted assessment calls EMIB a multi-billion-dollar-per-customer business with 30% operating margins and phenomenal ROIC, now headed by SK hynix's former CEO. x.com x.com
