Paradis
AI & Technology Investment Research
MEC Company has huge pricing power as the near-sole supplier of the chemistry that bonds metal to substrate in FC-BGA substrates for AI accelerators, with over 90% share. Its roughening chemicals stop substrates cracking under GPU heat, cost a rounding error of module value and are designed in years ahead, so switching is near impossible. It raised its FY2027 operating-margin target to 30% from 20% and is self-funding new capacity due by December 2026, ahead of peak glass-core adoption in 2027. x.com x.com x.com
IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com … Show more
SKC is the pure lead in glass substrates, with its Absolics unit due in the second half of 2026 as first mover. Applied Materials gets equipment revenue first, but SKC captures the margin at the substrate layer, the actual choke point. Intel's reported 2030 timeline is irrelevant to the near-term trade. Per TrendForce timelines cited by @aleabitoreddit, Absolics serves AMD customers, with Samsung Electro-Mechanics following in the second half of 2027. x.com
MEC Company has a monopoly chokehold on the PCB supply chain, at a time when anything in the PCB and IC substrate chain should see huge revenue growth. Its copper etchant and surface-treatment chemicals control the micro-roughness of copper foil: too rough and signals suffer more conductor loss, too smooth and the resin will not stick. x.com
LPKF faces mostly lumpy, cancelable pilot-line revenue until 2029, while the market already prices in much of its glass substrate option. Volume demand for its glass equipment hinges on TSMC and NVIDIA choosing glass for CoPoS panel packaging; that wave lands around 2028-29 and could slip to end-2030 on warpage and yield issues. Absolics' and Semco's 2027 plans are qualification. The real signals are TSMC's CoPoS tool-vendor selection and an LPKF order above EUR 10M naming a Tier-1 customer. … Show more
LPKF Laser & Electronics, the leader in through-glass vias, has meaningful upside as Intel's EMIB and glass-substrate manufacturing pick up, though it is speculative for now. Its technology is good, but it faces competitors such as DR Laser and Corning. Sizing up needs follow-through from Intel and the rest of the industry, clarity on how supply chains shape out, and a more convincing ramp and go-to-market. x.com
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is emerging as an AI infrastructure titan as advanced substrates become the bottleneck for AI scaling. Per @jukan05, it will supply FC-BGA substrates for Broadcom's most advanced AI accelerators from the second half, joining NVIDIA, Google, Amazon and Apple. With Ibiden and Shinko at full capacity, it is the only tier-1 player with the capex to scale large-area substrates. AI servers also need 3-4x more MLCCs, where Samsung and Murata own the IP and earn premium margin. … Show more
Intel's EMIB packaging is ramping as advanced packaging becomes the next chokepoint after HBM. EMIB substrate yields reportedly rose from ~30% in 2Q26 to ~45%, with targets of 50% by 4Q26 and 60% by 1Q27. Google is expected to adopt EMIB-T in 2027 and AWS is testing it. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says Intel has to prepay substrate suppliers to secure capacity. CoWoS capacity is set to grow about 20x from 2023 to 370k wpm by 2028, more than TSMC can carry alone. x.com
Intel's foundry may be closer than the market assumes because its UMC 12nm partnership brings external-customer experience and a more customer-friendly design kit. Musk said Terafab plans to use Intel 14A, with Tesla and SpaceX building and running the fabs themselves; that would be an important outside test. Intel still must prove yields, volume and schedules, while Terafab's commercial terms remain unclear. Still bullish, but not enough to add now. x.com
Intel's heavy capex ramp will pull its stock down. Per @wallstengine, Intel said tooling investment will rise 40% in 2026 versus 2025, focused on Intel 3, 18A and 18A-P, and that investors should expect 2027 capex to increase as well, with 14A volume production committed for 2028. x.com
Shin-Etsu Chemical is shifting from a chemical conglomerate to a chip-supply bottleneck, owning lithography and chemistry patents essential to the glass-substrate era. In 1,000W+ AI data centers glass is already required, as organic substrates warp and crack under the heat of Nvidia's Rubin systems. Intel and Samsung have moved pilot lines into volume production, with Shin-Etsu supplying bonding chemistry and masks. Cyclical PVC cash funds its electronics push, supporting a re-rating. x.com … Show more