Investor_NICK
Biotech & Technology Investor
Airbnb's turn to American Express suggests it is about to abuse shareholders. American Express is the new Costco, where dying brands go to rot. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is off-limits because AI agents could disrupt bookings. That view could change if the company adapts, pivots and proves it wrong. x.comÂ
Airbnb faces far less risk from AI shopping agents than online travel agencies or ad-driven e-commerce. It has no real ad revenue or paid placements, so changes in how people use the network matter less, and hosts and guests still want an intermediary for insurance, communications, arbitration and working capital. Individual hosts building their own agent-ready booking systems is a long way off, and many businesses may block agents to protect revenue, limiting what agents can see. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb is losing ground to hotels and other aggregators that compete without hidden fees. Over five years, Marriott returned 173% and Hilton 163% versus 18% for Airbnb, per @Fiscal_ai. x.comÂ
Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt hold an edge over Airbnb because users, including this one, dislike Airbnb's lack of customer service and refund terms. Airbnb refunds only 50% on cancellation, while most hotel chains give a full refund up to three days before. Airbnb's profitability remains a concern until it decides to grow up, which it can and likely will. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb may have found its stride, and in a period of rapid change it pays to back the companies that are executing. On the Q2 call, CEO Brian Chesky said the company is innovating faster than it ever has. x.comÂ
Airbnb is a value trap. The stock has been flat for five years, and signs of the promised revenue acceleration from new products are limited. Now CEO Brian Chesky is starting a new AI lab to develop models while remaining CEO, per @negligible_cap, a side project that shareholders should find annoying. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb's long-run outlook looks less promising as its prices have climbed close to those of hotels. @BourseWayne says he barely uses the platform anymore because prices have exploded toward hotel levels, while hotels offer far better service; hotels are now the clear preference. x.com x.comÂ
Airbnb's long underperformance is ending: it was too expensive at its IPO and has had to work through and digest those expectations, which is about to change. x.comÂ
Airbnb is definitely not undervalued, because growth is slowing and there is likely little margin expansion to offset the revenue deceleration. It trades at 15x NTM EBITDA and 28x NTM EPS, with EBITDA expected to grow at a 12% CAGR and EPS at 19% over the next 2-3 years. The chart would get a little interesting above $144 on the daily, and very interesting if it breaks the downtrend from its all-time high more than five years ago. x.comÂ