Donald Dean
Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading
Uber's options positioning looks calm and supportive in the short term as long as it holds above the $76.03 gamma flip and the $75 put wall. The $80 call wall could open around the September 18 options expiration, with a stretch to $87 by October 2 if $80 holds. A daily close under $75 would break the setup. x.comÂ
The market is sleeping on Uber, and the CEO's purchase of $10M of stock with his own money backs that view. The buy comes as shares retest their breakout from a massive descending wedge after weeks of bullish RSI divergence. If bulls defend this area into the weekend, the target is $167. x.comÂ
Uber's choppy trading is bullish consolidation that has now broken out of a bull flag. It broke the downtrend, reclaimed the 200 EMA and is holding above the $79.52 trigger, with resistance at $82.08 and $85.43. Q2 bookings rose 24% to $58B, and Uber is building a 30-plus partner autonomous vehicle network, including Baidu's Apollo Go in Dubai, Wayve in London and Pony.ai's 2,000 robotaxis across Europe. x.comÂ
Uber's valuation is out of balance with its fundamental trajectory over the medium term, and the long-term thesis is less convincing than it once was. It became a cash-flow machine sooner than expected, but the past couple of years have been a grind. It is a hold now and a sell if it reaches the top of its technical channel around $100. x.com x.comÂ
Uber looks set to reverse higher as large bullish options flow arrives just off a new monthly low. An $80 million in-the-money call block expiring June 5 comes amid massive put writing across the consumer discretionary and industrials sectors. The stock is coming off a textbook inefficient sell on the weekly chart and shows clear daily accumulation patterns. x.comÂ
Uber's rising operating margins make the market's apparent dismissal of it look misplaced. Its trailing operating margin climbed from -13% in March 2022 to 12% in June 2026, continuing the earlier case that improving profitability is underappreciated. x.comÂ
Uber faces a longer-term threat as Tesla will likely overtake it in paid miles driven and trips taken. Tesla should also be more profitable, since it needs no drivers and builds its own vehicles. Short term both companies can succeed; the outcome depends on whether regulation keeps pace with innovation and whether Tesla's app expands into package, food and medical delivery. x.com x.comÂ
Uber is drawing insider and high-profile buying at prices above today's. Per @insiderwave, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi disclosed buying 141,000 shares worth about $10 million at an average $70.96, the second executive to buy this week, after the COO. Nancy Pelosi invested at a higher price, and Bill Ackman, who has talked up the stock a lot, bought near $90. The bet is on the stock rising fast, ideally before March 2027. x.com x.comÂ
Uber is decent value because robotaxis will not be a winner-take-all market. Uber has massive investments and projects with Nvidia and will have its own self-driving robotaxis on the road. It trades at about 18 times earnings versus roughly 380 for Tesla, though sentiment will make it a frustrating tug of war for a long time. x.comÂ
Uber's autonomous-vehicle fears are unlikely to go away, which is why its multiples are so low. Owning Uber means betting that Tesla's Robotaxi will not be a serious threat within 24 months, when those fears could be even higher. x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
