Charles Edwards
Founder of Capriole Investments, Digital-Asset Investing
Bitcoin treasury companies can raise billions and destroy shareholder value while their executives still get paid. Mallers received over $2.6M in cash equivalent, per SEC filings, for a -92% shareholder return in one year before resigning, not counting options he still holds. x.comÂ
Crypto treasury companies such as Twenty One Capital and Nakamoto are a scam, and Twenty One's strategy centered on potentially acquiring Strike shows the next step is buying related parties that would otherwise be worthless. x.comÂ
Twenty One Capital's actions speak louder than its promises. It said it would buy $48B of bitcoin yet has purchased none, and almost a year on there is still no clear business model, strategy or products. Jack Mallers is likable but serves as the mouthpiece for backers who are a concern, so Strategy, Metaplanet and Strive are the better focus. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies with higher premiums can see greater price appreciation because buying Bitcoin at those premiums is highly accretive, if they do buy it. Last cycle, the companies demanding higher premiums saw the highest price appreciation, mostly for that reason. x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies will and should trade at a discount to NAV, since money in a double-tax structure has no reason to trade at a premium to money. Participants are harvesting the premium against each other in a zero-sum game until it flips to a discount, in bull or bear markets. Since tracking began, bitcoin rose 4.9% and Strive's bitcoin holdings 4.7%, yet Strive shares fell 14.8%, leaving bitcoin 19.7% ahead. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's bitcoin flywheel doesn't work in a bear market: below 1x mNAV, issuing stock to buy bitcoin loses money, so it defends the share price instead. It spent $139 million last week and bought zero bitcoin, putting raised money into its own stock, and until mNAV gets back above 1 it can't buy a single coin. @JamesIIIIIII adds that below 1x mNAV the flywheel becomes a treadmill, since the balance-sheet story works only while the market pays a premium for the wrapper. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies are a much better risk-adjusted play than AI stocks because buying Bitcoin avoids the constant innovation burden of competing businesses. Perpetual debt to own an asset that has already won beats maturing debt taken on to compete. x.comÂ
Strategy is buying Bitcoin high and selling it low, which is not a winning strategy. Michael Saylor says Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216M to fund dividends on its Digital Credit securities, leaving 843,775 BTC and $2.55B in USD reserves. x.comÂ
Crypto treasury companies are stalling because the buyers of last resort have stopped buying and started paying out. Strategy trades below the value of its own bitcoin and is now selling BTC to cover dividends. BitMine is down 86% and $9 billion underwater on its Ethereum, no longer raising capital, just paying out. Neither was ever a clean crypto bet; each was a leveraged premium dressed up as one. x.comÂ
Strive's bitcoin treasury is scaling at a striking pace. It bought 6,182 BTC in a week to reach 43,000, up 17%; holdings are up 54% less than a month into the quarter and 5.6 times since the start of the year. Effective common shares outstanding also rose from 124.1 million to 127.3 million during the week. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's share price is a bet on the next buyer, not on anything that produces cash. It filed a $20.8B net loss for the first half of 2026, an accounting fact about bitcoin's price, yet the stock rose this month. Neither produces a dollar, so investors are pricing a chain of strangers. x.comÂ
