David Lawrence
Founder & CEO of Finite, Bitcoin Talent Intelligence
Twenty One Capital's actions speak louder than its promises. It said it would buy $48B of bitcoin yet has purchased none, and almost a year on there is still no clear business model, strategy or products. Jack Mallers is likable but serves as the mouthpiece for backers who are a concern, so Strategy, Metaplanet and Strive are the better focus. x.com x.comÂ
Twenty One Capital has announced nothing of substance, so there is no reason to put money into it. x.comÂ
Crypto treasury companies such as Twenty One Capital and Nakamoto are a scam, and Twenty One's strategy centered on potentially acquiring Strike shows the next step is buying related parties that would otherwise be worthless. x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies can raise billions and destroy shareholder value while their executives still get paid. Mallers received over $2.6M in cash equivalent, per SEC filings, for a -92% shareholder return in one year before resigning, not counting options he still holds. x.comÂ
Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy isn't a buy even at about 0.8x the value of its bitcoin holdings. The discount reflects market skepticism about management, liquidity and governance, as investors price in execution risk and potential structural issues beyond the BTC exposure. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's new capital framework marks a shift to selling bitcoin at a loss to cover debts, at best a graceful unwind and more likely a head fake before lower. Having issued perpetual preferreds and converts against an asset with no cash flow, and with more common dilution untenable, it becomes a permanent bitcoin seller whose stack shrinks each year. Saylor sits on about $14B of unrealized losses, and 1920s investment trusts that sold holdings to buy back shares entered a death spiral. x.com … Show more
Bitcoin is a scam and nothing more than a greater-fool trade, because it is pure speculation with no intrinsic cash flow. It is overhyped as a wealth-builder and rarely lifts anyone out of their financial situation; in Charlie Munger's words, it is rat poison. Fading excitement and buying show people are figuring that out. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bit Digital's discount to NAV is not attractive because its exposure to volatile assets like bitcoin cuts both ways. It works while bitcoin is running, and the company also carries heavy dilution. x.comÂ
Strategy sold some bitcoin after saying it never would, making it the biggest scam company ever. Director Jarrod Patten then sold 22,300 shares in the open market at an average $152.60. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's core theses no longer seem real or relevant: it has not worked as digital gold preserving purchasing power and hedging inflation and geopolitical instability, institutional adoption has not strengthened its value, and its asymmetric upside against gold's roughly $15 trillion market cap has not materialized, even though 2026 should be a perfect year for it. That leaves only halving cycles, which makes it look like a silly asset class. x.comÂ
