Odd Diligence
Long/Short Event-Driven Trader
Twenty One Capital's actions speak louder than its promises. It said it would buy $48B of bitcoin yet has purchased none, and almost a year on there is still no clear business model, strategy or products. Jack Mallers is likable but serves as the mouthpiece for backers who are a concern, so Strategy, Metaplanet and Strive are the better focus. x.com x.comÂ
Twenty One Capital has announced nothing of substance, so there is no reason to put money into it. x.comÂ
Bitcoin treasury companies can raise billions and destroy shareholder value while their executives still get paid. Mallers received over $2.6M in cash equivalent, per SEC filings, for a -92% shareholder return in one year before resigning, not counting options he still holds. x.comÂ
Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.comÂ
Strategy's new capital framework marks a shift to selling bitcoin at a loss to cover debts, at best a graceful unwind and more likely a head fake before lower. Having issued perpetual preferreds and converts against an asset with no cash flow, and with more common dilution untenable, it becomes a permanent bitcoin seller whose stack shrinks each year. Saylor sits on about $14B of unrealized losses, and 1920s investment trusts that sold holdings to buy back shares entered a death spiral. x.com … Show more
DDC Enterprise trades at a $29M market cap against about $143M of net value: its 2,899 bitcoin are worth $231M against $88M of debt, and it just added more. Underdog crypto stocks are usually the last to rally as risk chasers move beyond the known names, so a clean break above the 50-day moving average on expanding volume could spark a fast move. x.comÂ
Circle and Coinbase will look extremely cheap in hindsight from this crypto bear phase. They are generational companies, and it's only a matter of time before Wall Street wakes up to the megatrends of tokenization, stablecoins and perpetual futures. x.comÂ
Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com x.comÂ
CleanSpark is bad for shareholders because it loses money mining Bitcoin, at an all-in cost above $120K per coin. Even excluding about $670M of markdowns on its Bitcoin holdings, it lost almost $400M over the past year, and depreciation eats the rest of its so-called profits. Its shareholder equity is below what it has raised from investors, though its miners are still carried above their worth. This rebuts @Market_Maestros, who argues miners trade on EV/EBITDA and the losses are unrealized. … Show more
Riot Platforms has needlessly burned more investor capital than almost any bitcoin miner this cycle. It pursued a failed Bitfarms takeover, paid exorbitant executive compensation and bought $500M of bitcoin at $98k in December 2024 only to sell it between $60k and $70k. Per the quoted post, Riot sold 9,665 BTC in the first half of 2026 at an average price of $75,785. x.com x.comÂ